Weekend Box Office Forecast: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Violent Night Will Go Unchallenged for One More Sleepy Weekend

Photo Credits: Disney & Marvel Studios ("Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"); Universal ("Violent Night")

The box office calm before James Cameron’s Avatar sequel storm will be in full effect one more time this weekend as studios sit out the frame and let holdovers again carry the early December market.

Last week’s standout debut from Violent Night was one of the few highlights for theaters in recent weeks following a Thanksgiving that left the industry and moviegoers underwhelmed outside of the limited engagement performance of Netflix’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

Universal’s David Harbour-led holiday comedy is drawing strong word of mouth, posting a very respectable internal weekend ratio during its first frame as it came in just above the high end of final forecasts with $13.45 million.

Holiday play should remain strong for the R-rated action/comedy through the month, but it will again play second jingle to Disney and Marvel Studios this weekend. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s staying power has been solid, though below optimistic expectations, as it nears the $400 million domestic mark.

Wakanda is eyeing a fifth consecutive finish atop the box office since opening in mid-November, a streak largely attributable to the lack of quality mainstream-friendly content released by studios since then.

A loss of premium screens to Violent Night last weekend led to over-cooked forecasts for Wakanda‘s fourth frame, but the lack of such impact this time around ought to help stabilize the MCU hit one last time before Avatar: The Way of Water sweeps in beginning with Thursday previews on December 15.

This week’s primary entrants include Sony’s re-issue of Father Stu, titled Father Stu: Reborn, though it is not currently expected to generate much attention and may land outside the top ten.

On the arthouse front, Focus Features’ Spoiler Alert will expand to an unofficial estimate of 700-plus locations after its platform launch of $82,983 at six venues last week.

Weekend Ranges

Father Stu: Reborn
Opening Range: < $1 million

Spoiler Alert (Expansion)
Opening Range: < $1 million

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projection ranges call for a 29 to 34 percent decline from last weekend’s $49.2 million top ten aggregate.

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 11 Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Disney & Marvel Studios $12,700,000 $411,700,000 ~3,800 -28%
Violent Night Universal Pictures $8,200,000 $25,500,000 ~3,682 -39%
Strange World Walt Disney Pictures $3,700,000 $30,500,000 ~3,700 -27%
The Menu Disney / Searchlight Pictures $2,500,000 $28,700,000 ~2,600 -28%
Devotion Sony / Columbia Pictures $1,900,000 $16,800,000 ~3,000 -30%
I Heard the Bells Fathom Events $1,200,000 $4,900,000 ~1,250 -40%
Black Adam Warner Bros. Pictures $1,100,000 $166,600,000 ~2,100 -30%
The Fabelmans Universal Pictures $900,000 $7,000,000 ~950 -29%
Spoiler Alert Focus Features $700,000 $806,000 ~750 +745%
Ticket to Paradise Universal Pictures $650,000 $67,600,000 ~1,500 -24%

*All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

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