#1 = The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Lionsgate’s dystopian action prequel starts with $44M, substantially below the openings for all four installments in the original franchise:
- -71% below 2012’s The Hunger Games: $152.5M
- -72% below 2013’s Catching Fire: $158.0M
- -64% below 2014’s Mockingjay Part 1: $121.8M
- -57% below 2015’s Mockingjay Part 2: $102.6M
That’s a slightly steeper opening weekend dropoff than 2016’s first Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, the first installment of Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter prequel series, which opened -56% off from the last of the original series’ films.
The original four Hunger Games installments finished with nearly identical multiples, a measure of final gross to opening weekend: 2.67x, 2.69x, 2.77x, and 2.74x respectively.
If Songbirds follows a similar trajectory, it will finish somewhere around $115M to $120M—lower than three of the four original films’ opening weekends alone.
#2 = Trolls Band Together
Universal’s animated three-quel started with $30.6M, -34% below 2016’s original Trolls: $46.5M.
(2020’s second installment, Trolls World Tour, was originally intended for theatrical release but pivoted to a Premium Video on Demand or PVOD release during the Covid pandemic.)
Compared to some other comparable animated releases from 2023, Band opens:
- +3% ahead of June’s Elemental = $29.6M
- +9% ahead of August’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem = $28.0M
- +34% ahead of September’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie = $22.7M
Band’s estimated opening weekend audience was 71% female, 59% ages 25+, and more Hispanic (37%) than white (34%).
Overseas / global
By this, the sixth weekend of its staggered international rollout, beginning on the October 13 frame, Band has earned $76.3M overseas and $108.1M globally, or 70% overseas.
(That overseas percentage will surely come down in the coming weeks, as domestic catches up.)
2016’s original Trolls earned $189.5M overseas and $343.2M globally, or 55% overseas.
#3 (tied) = Thanksgiving
The Sony Pictures holiday-themed horror starts with $10.2M.
Comparisons are few and far between, but that’s -24% below 2022’s similar R-rated holiday-themed film Violent Night with $13.4M.
A tie?
Studio weekend estimates have both Thanksgiving and The Marvels tied at exactly $10.2M; box office actuals, coming in Monday afternoon, will provide more exact numbers.
For what it’s worth, last weekend, The Marvels ultimately came in below its original studio estimate, at $46.1M versus $47.0M.
Overseas / global
Thanksgiving opened in only 11 overseas markets with $2.4M. Major markets still to release include France, Mexico, and Brazil.
#3 (tied) = The Marvels
Last weekend, Disney’s superhero sequel posted by far the worst opening in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) with only $46.1M.
Now in its sophomore frame, it falls a steep -77% to $10.2M, by far the steepest sophomore drop among all 33 MCU installments.
The second-steepest of the MCU’s sophomore drops came earlier this year: February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with -69.9%.
Put another way, The Marvels appears almost certain to finish with a final domestic total less than the opening weekend alone for 2019’s predecessor Captain Marvel: $153.4M.
Only one prior MCU film even posted a third weekend as low as The Marvels’ second weekend: 2008’s The Incredible Hulk with a third frame of $9.5M.
Compared to Marvel’s rival DC Comics, The Marvel also falls steeper than some other recent DC Extended Universe underperformers, like June’s The Flash with -72% and 2022’s Black Adam at -59%.
Overseas / global
Last weekend, The Marvels opened to $110.3M globally. That was -75% below the global opening for 2019’s Captain Marvel: $455.4M.
Now in its sophomore frame, The Marvels falls -67% in overseas holdover markets, still quite steep but at least milder than its -77% domestic drop.
The Marvels has now earned $96.3M overseas and $161.3M globally, or 59% overseas.
It appears unlikely to reach its predecessor’s global opening even by the end of its run and will finish nowhere near its predecessor’s $1.13B final global total.
The Marvels appears poised to become either the lowest or second-lowest grossing MCU film globally. Currently, the lowest is The Incredible Hulk with $265M, followed by 2011’s Captain America: The First Avengers with $370M.
The top market totals for The Marvels to date are:
- China: $14.7M
- U.K.: $7.2M
- Indonesia: $5.2M
- South Korea: $4.8M
- France: $4.8M
- Mexico: $4.8M
#6= The Holdovers
Last weekend, Focus Features’ comedy-drama came in sixth place with $3.2M. Now, it again repeats in sixth place with a mild -16% decline to $2.68M.
In its fourth frame, the film expands and almost doubles from 778 to 1,475 theaters, though that’s still about 38% the reach of the widest film in the marketplace.
#7 = Next Goal Wins
Searchlight Pictures’ sports comedy failed to get the ball into the net with a $2.5M start. While the smaller movie was never going to break records, that’s below even most pre-release projections.
It’s -51% below March’s Champions, another similar comedy about a hapless sports team, with $5.1M.
It’s also -36% below writer-director Taika Waititi’s 2019 Jojo Rabbit with $3.9M.
Journey to Bethlehem
Last weekend, the Sony Pictures / Affirm Films faith-based musical began with $2.4M in seventh place. Now in its sophomore frame, it falls -60% to $950K.
Versus three of the other biggest faith-based films from 2023, that sophomore drop is equal to or steeper than:
- September’s The Blind: -26%
- March’s His Only Son: -49%
- October’s After Death: -60%
Perhaps surprisingly, Bethlehem isn’t holding well at the box office, even though every subsequent weekend approaches the Christmas season which provides the film’s plot.
Limited release: Dream Scenario
Last weekend, A24’s fantasy comedy debuted with $220,035 in six theaters. That $36,673 per-screen average ranks #8 of 2023 so far.
In its sophomore frame, it expanded slightly to 25 theaters and earns an estimated $275,514, for a $11,021 average.
Limited release: Saltburn
The Amazon MGM Studios psychological thriller opened with an estimated $315,492 in seven theaters. That $45,070 ranks #6 of 2023 so far, behind only:
- June’s Asteroid City: $142,230
- April’s Beau is Afraid: $80,099
- June’s Past Lives: $58,067
- July’s Theater Camp: $50,203
- August’s Bottoms: $46,105
Weekend comparisons
Total box office this weekend came in around $113.6M.
Here’s how this weekend compares to last weekend, the same weekend last year, and the same weekend in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
|
Weekend |
Total |
This weekend is: |
Leader |
|
Last weekend |
$87.6M |
+29% |
The Marvels = $46.1M |
|
Same weekend in 2022 |
$100.6M |
+13% |
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, second frame = $66.4M |
|
Same weekend in 2019 |
$109.1M |
+4% |
Ford v. Ferrari = $31.4M |
YTD comparisons
Year-to-date box office stands around $7.93B.
Through the equivalent point, here’s how that compares to last year and the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
|
Year |
YTD total |
2023 YTD now: |
After last weekend: |
Trend |
|
2022 |
$6.44B |
+23.0% |
+23.3% |
Down |
|
2019 |
$9.65B |
-17.9% |
-18.1% |
Up |
Top distributors
Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:
- Disney + 20th Century + Searchlight + Star: $1.798B
- Universal + Focus Features: $1.788B
- Warner Bros.: $1.15B
- Sony Pictures + Sony Classics + Crunchyroll + Affirm: $882.1M
- Paramount: $836.6M
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:
| Title | Estimated weekend | % change | Locations | Location change | Average | Total | Weekend | Distributor |
| The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | $44,000,000 | 3,776 | $11,653 | $44,000,000 | 1 | Lionsgate | ||
| Trolls Band Together | $30,600,000 | 3,870 | $7,907 | $31,770,000 | 1 | Universal | ||
| The Marvels | $10,200,000 | -78% | 4,030 | $2,531 | $65,024,806 | 2 | Disney | |
| Thanksgiving | $10,200,000 | 3,204 | $3,184 | $10,200,000 | 1 | Sony Pictures | ||
| Five Nights at Freddy’s | $3,500,000 | -61% | 2,829 | -865 | $1,237 | $132,612,000 | 4 | Universal |
| The Holdovers | $2,700,000 | -16% | 1,478 | 700 | $1,827 | $8,357,000 | 4 | Focus Features [Universal] |
| Next Goal Wins | $2,500,000 | 2,240 | $1,116 | $2,500,000 | 1 | Searchlight [Disney] | ||
| Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour | $2,400,000 | -61% | 1,573 | -1,275 | $1,526 | $175,300,000 | 6 | AMC Theatres Distribution + Variance |
| Priscilla | $2,326,380 | -49% | 1,802 | -559 | $1,291 | $16,982,259 | 4 | A24 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | $1,920,000 | -58% | 1,714 | -1,643 | $1,120 | $63,570,000 | 5 | Paramount |
| Journey to Bethlehem | $950,000 | -60% | 2,002 | $475 | $4,268,000 | 2 | Sony Pictures | |
| Radical | $901,000 | -48% | 461 | -73 | $1,954 | $6,568,187 | 3 | Pantelion Films |
| Saltburn | $315,492 | 7 | $45,070 | $315,492 | 1 | Amazon Studios | ||
| Dream Scenario | $275,514 | 25% | 25 | 19 | $11,021 | $609,062 | 2 | A24 |
| PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | $270,000 | -84% | 625 | -1,154 | $432 | $65,097,000 | 8 | Paramount |
| Anatomy of a Fall | $170,000 | -63% | 170 | -413 | $1,000 | $3,189,247 | 6 | Neon |
| The Exorcist: Believer | $125,000 | -89% | 295 | -1,292 | $424 | $65,461,000 | 7 | Universal |
| After Death | $66,313 | -92% | 140 | -1,571 | $474 | $11,399,629 | 4 | Angel Studios |
| Oppenheimer | $51,000 | -46% | 104 | -17 | $490 | $325,320,000 | 18 | Universal |
| Fallen Leaves | $50,672 | 2 | $25,336 | $50,672 | 1 | MUBI | ||
| The Creator | $43,000 | -85% | 165 | -295 | $261 | $40,766,647 | 8 | 20th Century Studios [Disney] |
| Freelance | $30,636 | -92% | 85 | -709 | $360 | $5,311,511 | 4 | Relativity |
| What Happens Later | $27,336 | -96% | 106 | -1,344 | $258 | $3,260,728 | 3 | Bleecker Street |
| The Disappearance of Shere Hite | $17,000 | 2 | $8,500 | $17,000 | 1 | IFC Films | ||
| Stop Making Sense | $14,099 | -56% | 24 | -2 | $587 | $5,032,127 | Cinecom | |
| Common Ground | $10,096 | 24% | 4 | -2 | $2,524 | $210,907 | 8 | Area 23a |
| Dicks: The Musical | $9,346 | -36% | 18 | -4 | $519 | $1,434,590 | 7 | A24 |
| All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt | $4,090 | -60% | 4 | -2 | $1,023 | $40,841 | 3 | A24 |
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