Weekend Box Office: Scream VI Scares Up Franchise’s Best Opening

Photo Credits: Paramount ("Scream VI"); MGM ("Creed III"); Sony ("65"); Focus Features ("Champions")

Scream VI

Paramount’s horror sequel made all the other films scream at the box office, with a first place debut of $44.5M. That’s on the higher end of pre-release industry projections, which were closer to $40M.

Compared to other openings in the franchise, that’s:

  • +35% above 1997’s Scream 2 ($32.9M)
  • +28% above 2000’s Scream 3 ($34.7M)
  • 2.38x 2011’s Scream 4 ($18.6M)
  • +48% above 2022’s fifth installment Scream ($30.0M)

Versus some other comparable horror titles in the past year or two, it’s also:

  • +97% above 2022’s Smile ($22.6M)
  • +88% above 2022’s The Black Phone ($23.6M)
  • +46% above January’s M3GAN ($30.4M)
  • +11% above 2022’s Halloween Ends ($40.0M)
  • Less than +1% above 2022’s Nope ($44.3M)
  • -6% below 2021’s A Quiet Place Part II ($47.5M)
  • -10% below 2021’s Halloween Kills ($49.4M)

Scream VI opened to $22.6M overseas, for a $67.1M global debut – also a franchise high.

Creed III

Last weekend, the MGM / United Artists Releasing boxing drama knocked out a $58.3M opening in first place. That was well above industry pre-release projections, which were in the $40M-$45M range.

It was also the franchise’s top opening yet, +97% above 2015’s Creed ($29.6M) and +64% above 2018’s Creed II ($35.5M).

Now in its second frame, the third installment drops -53% to $27.1M and second place.

That sophomore drop is steeper than for the last three films in the Creed / Rocky franchise:

  • 2006’s Rocky Balboa (-43%, after first falling only -13% on New Year’s weekend)
  • 2015’s Creed (-49%)
  • 2018’s Creed II (-53%)

It’s also steeper than for several of the other biggest sports films of recent years:

  • 2010’s The Karate Kid (-46%)
  • 2019’s Ford v. Ferrari (-50%)
  • 2009’s The Blind Side (-50%, after first rising +18% on Thanksgiving weekend)

However, it was milder than some other boxing-themed films of recent years:

  • 2015’s Southpaw (-54%)
  • 2016’s Bleed for This (-61%)

Creed III opened with $41.8M overseas, for a $100.4M global opening. That was more than double the number for Creed and +25% ahead of Creed II.

The third installment now stands at a $78.0M overseas and $179.4M global total.

Top overseas totals include France ($12.4M), U.K. ($11.3M), Germany ($7.9M), Mexico ($5.9M), and Italy (also $5.9M).

65

Sony Pictures’ sci-fi action thriller was closer to “6.5” than “65,” with a $12.3M opening for third place.

That’s on the higher end of pre-release industry projections, which were closer to $10M.

Compared to other comparable sci-fi or predator-themed action thrillers of recent years, that’s:

  • +24% above 2022’s Moonfall ($9.8M)
  • +14% above 2021’s The Matrix Resurrections ($10.7M)
  • +11% above 2018’s Annihilation ($11.0M)
  • +6% above 2022’s Beast ($11.5M)

65 opened to $7.2M overseas, for a $19.5M global start. Top overseas market totals to date include the U.K. ($1.5M) and Mexico ($1.1M).

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

The Disney / Marvel Studios superhero sequel is now earning box office numbers as small as its title characters. Now in its fourth weekend, it falls  -45% to $7.0M and fourth place.

Among all 31 MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe) films to date, Quantumania earned progressively lower ranks every weekend:

  • #17 opening weekend
  • #25 second weekend
  • #27 third weekend
  • Now, the #29 fourth weekend

The only two MCU fourth weekends it beat were 2021’s Black Widow ($6.4M) and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk ($4.8M).

Due to its steep drops, Quantumania’s $197.9M domestic total is falling fast against comparable MCU titles through the equivalent point in release, 24 days:

Film

Quantumania opening

Quantumania total through last weekend

Quantumania total through this weekend

Trend

2015’s Ant-Man

+85%

+41%

+34%

Down

2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp

+39%

+13%

+8%

Down

2022’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

-41%

-49%

-50%

Down

2022’s Thor: Love and Thunder

-26%

-32%

-34%

Down

2022’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

-43%

-45%

-46%

Down

Quantumania has earned $198.0M domestically and $249.6M overseas, for a $447.6M global total. It’s looking increasingly unlikely that it will match Ant-Man and the Wasp’s $622.6M global total.

Quantumania’s top overseas market totals so far include China ($39.0M), U.K. ($22.1M), Mexico ($17.4M), France ($12.6M), and South Korea ($12.5M).

Cocaine Bear

Now in its third frame, Universal’s R-rated comedy-thriller drops -44% to $6.2M and fifth place.

With $51.6M domestically to date, here’s how Cocaine Bear is performing relative to other comparable titles through the equivalent point in release, 17 days:

Film

Bear opening

Bear total through last weekend

Bear total through this weekend

Trend

2022’s The Menu

2.58x

2.18x

2.09x

Down

2019’s Crawl

+93%

+72%

+63%

Down

2017’s 47 Meters Down

2.07x

+72%

+59%

Down

2016’s The Shallows

+38%

+17%

+12%

Down

2022’s Violent Night

+72%

+54%

+47%

Down

2006’s Snakes on a Plane

+52%

+57%

+66%

Up

Bear has earned $14.0M overseas and $51.6M domestically, for a $65.6M global total. Top overseas market totals include the U.K. ($5.6M) and Australia ($2.4M).

Jesus Revolution

Now in its third frame, Lionsgate’s faith-based film falls -39% to $5.1M.

With a $39.4M total to date, here’s how Revolution is performing relative to other comparable titles through the equivalent point in release, 17 days:

Film

Revolution opening

Revolution total through last weekend

Revolution total through this weekend

Trend

2022’s Father Stu

2.93x

2.63x

2.47x

Down

2021’s American Underdog

2.70x

2.00x

2.09x

Up

2019’s Overcomer

+94%

+77%

+60%

Down

2019’s Breakthrough

+40%

+40%

+29%

Down

Champions

Focus Features’ sports comedy debuted with $5.1M. That was slightly higher than pre-release industry projections, which were around $4M.

The film did earn an “A” CinemaScore and a 97% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which potentially bodes well for its earnings in the weeks ahead.

The audience demographics were 56% female and 83% ages 25+.

Avatar: The Way of Water (domestic weekend)

20th Century Studios’ sci-fi sequel declined a mild -26% decline to $2.7M.

All time, Water has earned the:

Weekend #

All-time ranking

Gross

1

#37

$134.1M

2

#30

$63.3M

3

#3

$67.4M

4

#3

$45.8M

5

#3

$32.8M

6

#7

$20.1M

7

#7

$15.9M

8

#11

$11.3M

9

#24

$7.2M

10

#25

$6.5M

11

#35

$4.8M

12

#49

$3.6M

13

#61

$2.7M

With $674.6M domestically, Water now ranks #8 all time, behind only:

  1. 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.6M)
  2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($858.3M)
  3. 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1M)
  4. 2009’s Avatar ($785.2M)
  5. 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($718.7M)
  6. 2018’s Black Panther ($700.4M)
  7. 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($678.8M)

That also makes Water the #2 domestic release from 2022 so far, despite only achieving the #5 opening weekend of that year.

Through the equivalent point in release, 87 days, Water is now running -1.3% behind Maverick and -7.6% behind the original Avatar.

Overseas, Water has earned $1.61B. That’s the #3 overseas total of all time, behind only 2009’s Avatar ($2.13B) and 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($1.94B).

Globally, Water has earned $2.29B. That’s also the #3 global total of all time, behind only the same two films: 2009’s Avatar ($2.92B) and 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($2.79B).

Water already surpassed Maverick to become the biggest global release from 2022. Compared to Maverick’s $1.48B global total, Water is now +55% ahead and counting.

Water’s top overseas totals to date include China ($246.0M), France ($153.1M), Germany ($144.3M), South Korea ($107.9M), and the U.K. ($93.0M).

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Universal’s animated sequel falls -40% to $1.6M.

The film didn’t crack the top 100 all time for any of its first four frames. Due to strong legs at the box office, though, it broken into that tier every frame from its fifth through eleventh weekends.

Now in its twelfth frame, though, the title once again falls out of the top 100 on that metric.

All-time, here’s how the film has fared from its fifth weekend on:

Weekend

All-time ranking

Gross

5

#75

$11.8M

6

#47

$10.4M

7

#60

$7.8M

8

#79

$5.5M

9

#59

$5.3M

10

#70

$4.1M

11

#98

$2.7M

12

<#100

$1.6M

Wish has earned $179.6M domestically and $281.9M overseas, for a $461.5M global total. It still seems unlikely to pass the $554.9M global haul of 2011’s original Puss in Boots.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre

Last weekend, Lionsgate’s action-comedy didn’t earn a “fortune,” opening to $3.1M in seventh place. That was on the lower end of pre-release projections, which were closer to $4M.

Now in its sophomore frame, it falls -59% to $1.2M.

Compared to some other comparable action films also starring Jason Statham, that’s steeper than:

  • 2016’s Mechanic: Resurrection (-40%)
  • 2015’s Spy (-46%)
  • 2011’s Killer Elite (-47%)
  • 2013’s Homefront (-50%)
  • 2018’s The Meg (-53%)
  • 2013’s Parker (-53%)
  • 2011’s The Mechanic (-54%)
  • 2021’s Wrath of Man (-55%)
  • 2019’s Hobbs & Shaw (-58%)

However, it’s milder than Statham’s 2012 Safe (-66%).

Compared to some other action films of recent years which also opened around $4M, it also fell more steeply than 2021’s The Protégé (-44%) and 2022’s The 355 (-51%), but milder than 2019’s The Kitchen (-60%).

Weekend comparisons

Total box office this weekend came in around $114.7M. Compared to the same weekend last frame, last year, and in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

Weekend

Total

This weekend is:

Notes

Last weekend

$117.3M

-2%

Creed III led ($58.3M)

Same weekend in 2022

$101.9M

+12%%

The Batman led for a second consecutive frame ($66.5M)

Same weekend in 2019

$210.5M

-45%

Captain Marvel led ($153.4M)

YTD comparisons

Year-to-date box office stands around $1.33B, which is:

Year

YTD total

2023 YTD after last weekend:

2023 YTD now:

Trendline

2022

$1.01B

+41.5%

+31.5%

Down

2019

$1.81B

-24.2%

-26.5%

Down

Top distributors

Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:

    1. Disney ($495.0M)
    2. Universal ($321.4M)
    3. Sony Pictures ($124.20M)
    4. MGM / United Artists ($106.4M)
    5. Paramount ($103.2M)
    6. Lionsgate ($77.1M)
    7. Warner Bros. ($34.8M)

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

Title  Estimated weekend  % change Locations Location change Average  Total  Weekend Distributor
Scream VI $44,500,000   3,675   $12,109 $44,500,000 1 Paramount
Creed III $27,173,000 -53% 4,007 n/c $6,781 $101,358,274 2 United Artists
“65” $12,300,000   3,405   $3,612 $12,300,000 1 Sony Pictures
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $7,000,000 -45% 3,105 -720 $2,254 $197,978,428 4 Walt Disney
Cocaine Bear $6,200,000 -44% 3,204 -367 $1,935 $51,660,445 3 Universal
Jesus Revolution $5,175,000 -39% 2,575 n/c $2,010 $39,453,451 3 Lionsgate
Champions $5,150,000   3,030   $1,700 $5,150,000 1 Focus Features [Universal]
Avatar: The Way of Water $2,700,000 -26% 1,675 -625 $1,612 $674,697,185 13 20th Century [Disney]
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $1,650,000 -40% 1,816 -772 $909 $179,626,905 12 Universal
Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre $1,280,000 -59% 2,168 n/c $590 $5,562,863 2 Lionsgate
The Quiet Girl $400,000 418% 244 226 $1,639 $591,340 13 Super LTD
Everything Everywhere All At Once $350,683 70% 584 -52 $600 $73,786,885 51 A24
80 for Brady $205,000 -77% 367 -1,128 $559 $39,072,000 6 Paramount
A Man Called Otto $185,000 -73% 347 -1,156 $533 $63,873,086 11 Sony Pictures
Missing $115,000 -76% 275 -400 $418 $32,400,992 8 Sony Pictures
The Whale $60,201 -31% 106 -59 $568 $17,026,533 14 A24
M3GAN $56,000 -76% 148 -294 $378 $95,009,545 10 Universal
The Fabelmans $55,000 10% 567 -24 $97 $17,332,360 18 Universal
Knock at the Cabin $54,000 -91% 202 -1,008 $267 $35,350,365 6 Universal
The Banshees of Inisherin $44,000 1% 505 235 $87 $10,582,838 21 Searchlight [Disney]
TÁR $37,000 -17% 185 -259 $200 $6,747,445 23 Focus Features [Universal]
Emily $29,807 -86% 78 -487 $382 $1,061,008 4 Bleecker Street
Close $19,802 -70% 79 -74 $251 $1,076,344 15 A24
Aftersun $9,544 -46% 12 -2 $795 $1,658,791 21 A24
Violent Night $5,000 -79% 33 -16 $152 $50,015,335 15 Universal
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $4,000 -61% 30 -10 $133 $453,827,729 18 Walt Disney
Photo Credits: Paramount ("Scream VI"); MGM ("Creed III"); Sony ("65"); Focus Features ("Champions")
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