#1 = Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
She has a blank space, and she’ll write a check for $97M.
[Monday Update: the final opening weekend number ultimately came in at $92.8M, several million dollars below its original Sunday estimate.]
During its opening weekend alone, the AMC Theatres Distribution and Variance Films concert documentary event cinema release Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is already the top concert film of all time domestically… by a lot.
It crushed the prior top three, surpassing each of their lifetime earnings in a matter of days.
- 2011’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never with $73.0M
- 2009’s posthumous Michael Jackson film This Is It with $72.0M
- 2008’s Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert with $65.2M
Eras is currently neck-and-neck for the top October weekend of all time, a record currently held by 2019’s Joker with $96.2M. The tie will officially be broken on Monday, once actuals are released.
[Monday Update: Eras ultimately opened -3% below Joker, to claim the #2 October weekend ever.]
Its estimated debut total puts the film around #79 on the list of highest-grossing opening weekends, a rank that could change a few slots up or down once actuals are released.
It speaks volumes about Swift’s popularity that despite possibly having the biggest October opening ever–and one of the top 80 or so biggest openings of all time–the film’s opening performance still arguably represents a slight disappointment relative to many $100M+ projections.
Rank this year
Eras also marks the #6 opening weekend of 2023 so far, behind:
- July’s Barbie: $162.0M
- April’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $146.3M
- June’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse = $120.6M
- May’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: $118.4M
- February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania = $106.1M
It’s possible that Eras could fall behind May’s The Little Mermaid with $95.5M once actuals are released on Monday afternoon.
The film earned $11.1M domestically from 377 Imax screens, or 11.4% of its domestic take.
That’s a case of slight overindexing, with Imax screens comprising 9.7% of the film’s domestic screen count.
“We are grateful to Taylor Swift for allowing us to make [the] concert film accessible to millions of fans in movie theatres around the world,” AMC Theatres’ Executive Vice President of Worldwide Programming and Chief Content Officer Elizabeth Frank said in a press release.
“Her spectacular performance delighted fans, who dressed up and danced through the film,” Frank continued. “With tremendous recommendations and fans buying tickets to see this concert film several times, we anticipate [the] concert film playing to big audiences for weeks to come.”
The National Association of Theatre Owners echoed that sentiment.
“It was another landmark weekend for cinemas, with moviegoers turning out in droves for a fantastic concert beautifully filmed for the big screen,” NATO’s President and CEO Michael O’Leary said in a separate press release.
“This year has been marked by unprecedented experiences for movie lovers in theaters across this nation,” O’Leary continued. “The Eras Tour debut proves, yet again, that fans are eager to share other experiences in a communal way, with theater owners working creatively to build memorable moments in their cinemas.”
#2 = The Exorcist: Believer
Last weekend, Universal’s horror sequel opened in first place, albeit below several other major post-pandemic horror sequels, with $26.4M.
Now in its sophomore frame, it falls -58% to $11.0M and second place.
For comparison, that’s more than double this weekend’s percentage drop for the other biggest horror film currently in the marketplace: Saw X at -27%.
However, the -58% second weekend drop is slightly milder than that of the Exorcist franchise’s last major installment, 2004’s Exorcist: The Beginning at -61%.
Compared to some other major post-pandemic horror sequels, Believer fell steeper than:
- 2021’s The Forever Purge: -43%
- 2021’s Spiral: -47%
- 2021’s Don’t Breathe 2: -52%
- September’s The Nun II: -55%
- September’s Saw X: -57%
- 2021’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It: -57%
However, it fell milder than the sophomore drops for:
- 2022’s Scream: -59%
- 2021’s A Quiet Place Part II: -59%
- 2021’s Escape Room Tournament of Champions: -60%
- July’s Insidious: The Red Door: -61%
- 2021’s Halloween Kills: -71%
- 2022’s Halloween Ends: -80%
Overseas / global
This weekend, Believer fell -45% in overseas holdover markets, milder than its -58% domestic drop.
It’s earned $40.0M overseas and $84.9M globally, or 47% overseas.
Top five overseas market totals to date are:
- Mexico: $6.7M
- U.K.: $4.2M
- Spain: $2.4M
- Italy: $2.3M
- Germany: $1.9M
Major markets still to release include South Korea and Japan.
#3 = Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Now in its third frame, Paramount’s animated sequel Mighty falls -38% to $7.0M and third place.
After 17 days, Mighty has earned $49.8M. Through the equivalent point in release, it’s running:
- +64% above 2021’s Paw Patrol: The Movie with $30.3M, worse than its +73% opening
- +24% above 2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog with $39.9M
(Both films opened day-and-date, simultaneously in cinemas and on streaming on Paramount+ – plus Clifford opened midweek on a Wednesday.)
Overseas / global
This weekend, Mighty fell -24% in overseas holdover markets, milder than its -38% domestic drop.
It’s earned $76.5M overseas and $126.3M globally, or 60% from overseas.
For comparison, its 2021 predecessor finished with $104.2M overseas and $144.3M globally, or 72% from overseas.
The sequel’s top five market totals to date are:
- China: $14.9M
- Germany: $6.9M
- Mexico: $5.7M
- Australia: $4.6M
- France: $4.5M
Major markets still to release include Spain and Japan.
#4 = Saw X
Now in its third frame, Lionsgate’s horror sequel saws off only -27% to $5.7M and fourth place.
For comparison, that’s less than half this weekend’s percentage drop for the other biggest horror film currently in the marketplace: The Exorcist: Believer at -58%.
After 17 days, this tenth installment has earned $41.4M. Through the equivalent point in release, it’s running below 2004’s original Saw, despite opening above it:
- -9% below 2004’s original Saw with $45.7M, worse than its +0.1% opening
- 2.10x above 2021’s ninth installment Spiral with $19.7M, about equal with its 2.09x opening
- +20% above 2017’s eighth installment Jigsaw with $34.3M, better than its +10% opening
#5 = The Creator
Now in its third frame, 20th Century Studios’ original sci-fi drops -31% to $4.3M and fifth place.
After 17 days, it’s earned $32.4M. Through the equivalent point in release, it’s running behind some other adult-oriented sci-fi of the past decade that opened in the same $10M-$20M range:
- -1% below 2021’s The Matrix Resurrections with $32.9M (Resurrections opened midweek)
- -12% below 2017’s Ghost in the Shell with $37.0M, better than its -24% opening
- -18% below 2015’s Jupiter Ascending with $39.6M, better than its -23% opening
- -25% below 2019’s Ad Astra with $43.2M, slightly better than its -26% opening
- -56% below 2016’s Passengers with $74.7M (Passengers opened midweek)
However, it’s running better through the equivalent point in release than a few other adult-oriented sci-fi films which opened in the same $10M-$20M range:
- +23% above 2018’s Annihilation with $26.2M, worse than its +27% opening
- +51% above 2014’s Transcendence with $21.3M, better than its +29% opening
Total box office this weekend came in around $135.8M.
Here’s how this weekend compares to last weekend, the same weekend last year, and the same weekend in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
This weekend is:
The Exorcist: Believer = $26.4M
Same weekend in 2022
Halloween Ends: $40.0M
Same weekend in 2019
Joker, second frame: $55.8M
Year-to-date box office stands around $7.34B.
Through the equivalent point, here’s how that compares to last year and the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:
2023 YTD now:
After last weekend:
Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:
- Disney + 20th Century + Searchlight + Star: $1.70B
- Universal + Focus Features: $1.59B
- Warner Bros.: $1.14B
- Sony Pictures + Sony Classics + Crunchyroll: $863.7M
- Paramount: $757.6M
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:
|Title||Estimated weekend||% change||Locations||Location change||Average||Total||Weekend||Distributor|
|Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour||$97,000,000||3,855||$25,162||$97,000,000||1||AMC Theatres + Variance Films|
|The Exorcist: Believer||$11,000,000||-58%||3,684||21||$2,986||$44,927,000||2||Universal|
|PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie||$7,000,000||-38%||3,707||-320||$1,888||$49,886,716||3||Paramount|
|The Creator||$4,300,000||-31%||2,960||-720||$1,453||$32,405,744||3||20th Century Studios [Disney]|
|A Haunting in Venice||$2,052,000||-24%||2,290||-135||$896||$38,993,956||5||20th Century Studios [Disney]|
|The Blind||$2,023,458||-37%||1,164||-150||$1,738||$13,973,400||3||Fathom Events|
|The Nun II||$1,615,000||-38%||2,128||-364||$759||$83,747,686||6||Warner Bros.|
|The Equalizer 3||$960,000||-47%||1,524||-2||$630||$90,567,493||7||Sony Pictures|
|Dumb Money||$920,000||-57%||2,276||-561||$404||$12,626,141||5||Sony Pictures|
|Hocus Pocus||$896,000||-44%||1,430||$627||$47,390,947||Walt Disney|
|My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3||$295,000||-53%||610||-173||$484||$28,132,240||6||Focus Features [Universal]|
|Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem||$225,000||-28%||424||$531||$118,376,239||11||Paramount|
|Stop Making Sense||$171,037||-60%||258||-269||$663||$4,476,498||Cinecom|
|Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story||$141,000||-51%||194||-66||$727||$43,551,596||8||Sony Pictures|
|The Royal Hotel||$139,000||-58%||273||6||$509||$644,503||2||Neon|
|Anatomy of a Fall||$125,377||5||$25,075||$125,377||1||Neon|
|Dicks: The Musical||$94,677||-57%||15||8||$6,312||$373,096||2||A24|
|Haunted Mansion||$82,000||-35%||125||-40||$656||$67,521,588||12||Walt Disney|
|Talk To Me||$54,271||-22%||60||-35||$905||$48,196,192||12||A24|
|The Mission||$29,893||8||$3,737||$29,893||1||National Geographic|
|Once Within a Time||$12,250||1||$12,250||$12,250||1||Oscilloscope|
|Common Ground||$6,200||-81%||6||$1,033||$108,929||3||Area 23a|