Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Soaring Higher, Further, Faster to $150M+ Domestic, $400M+ Global Debut

Saturday Update: The Marvel Cinematic Universe has yet another resounding success to store in its coffers as Captain Marvel earned an excellent $61.382 million domestic opening on Friday, inclusive of Thursday night’s $20.7 million earnings.

That puts the weekend on course to land within the range of bullish pre-release expectations for a weekend close to or north of $150 million — far ahead of cautious tracking projections calling for around $100 million last month. The film has an eye toward the top three March openings of all-time if it can surpass The Hunger Games‘ $152.54 million.

Combined with overseas results, we project the film’s global debut is likely to exceed $400 million through Sunday — with upside for more.

Domestically, Friday’s take stands as the seventh highest MCU opening day, and the second-highest among all MCU origin/solo character titles — trailing only Black Panther‘s $75.94 million.

For Anna Boden, co-director of the film with Ryan Fleck, this represents the highest opening day in box office history by a film directed or co-directed by a woman — topping director Patty Jenkins’ previous record of $38.25 million for Wonder Woman.

The film earned an “A” CinemaScore.

For a fuller comparison view, Captain Marvel‘s first domestic day registered:

  • 19 percent behind Black Panther ($75.94 million)
  • 32 percent ahead of Thor: Ragnarok ($46.5 million)
  • 21 percent ahead of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($50.8 million)
  • 60.5 percent ahead of Wonder Woman ($38.25 million)
  • 9 percent ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($56.1 million)
  • 4 percent behind Beauty and the Beast (2017) ($63.8 million)
  • 88 percent ahead of Doctor Strange ($32.6 million)

Internal weekend projections at this stage are highly dependent on the family turnout through Saturday and Sunday. Thursday night’s portion represented nearly 34 percent of the opening day gross, nearly identical to Black Panther‘s 33 percent Thursday night share of opening day. A direct projection based on that trajectory would suggest a weekend north of $160 million to be possible.

However, Panther had a holiday (Presidents Day on Monday) boosting its Sunday performance, as well as Valentine’s Day landing the day before opening night. As such, it’s not quite an apples-to-apples comparison for Marvel, which has no similar holiday to benefit from this weekend. It remains to be seen how much effect Friday’s International Women’s Day may or may not have had.

This morning, Disney is projecting $145-155 million for the domestic weekend. A complete table of domestic weekend estimates can be found below.

Captain Marvel International Update

Overseas, the film is off to an equally impressive start with $127 million collected through Friday, its third day of release. Representing the #1 western debut in all markets, that figure is inclusive of a $34.3 million opening day in China — the second highest MCU opening day ever, trailing only Avengers: Infinity War ($76 million).

In the United Kingdom, Marvel scored the MCU’s fourth highest MCU opening day, while Mexico drew the seventh highest opening day in industry history, and Spain’ claimed the second best MCU opening behind Infinity War.

Through Friday, here’s the overseas breakdown from Disney:

TerritoriesGBO
China$34.3M
Korea$9.3M
Indonesia$6.4M
Brazil$5.4M
Russia$5.4M
UK$5.3M
Australia$4.5M
France$4.3M
Mexico$4.1M
Thailand$3.7M
Germany$3.4M
Other$40.9M
Total$127.0M

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 8 – SUN, MAR. 10

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Captain Marvel $153,000,000 4,310 $35,499 $153,000,000 1 Disney
2 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $15,900,000 -47% 4,042 -244 $3,934 $120,866,125 6 Universal / DreamWorks Animation
3 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $12,300,000 -55% 2,442 0 $5,037 $46,129,810 2 Lionsgate
4 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $3,900,000 -41% 2,930 -528 $1,331 $97,184,961 7 Warner Bros.
5 Alita: Battle Angel $3,200,000 -56% 2,374 -722 $1,348 $78,346,064 4 20th Century Fox
6 Green Book $2,600,000 -43% 2,097 -544 $1,240 $80,251,871 17 Universal Pictures
7 Fighting With My Family $2,400,000 -49% 2,455 -400 $978 $18,868,090 4 MGM
8 Isn’t It Romantic $2,400,000 -47% 2,223 -1102 $1,080 $44,144,720 4 Warner Bros.
9 Greta $2,100,000 -53% 2,417 6 $869 $8,190,735 2 Focus Features
10 What Men Want $1,200,000 -57% 1,062 -956 $1,130 $51,997,160 5 Paramount
11 The Upside $1,100,000 -45% 1,010 -597 $1,089 $104,620,031 9 STX Entertainment
12 Happy Death Day 2U $845,000 -66% 1,098 -1233 $770 $26,771,645 4 Universal Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Apollo 11 $1,400,000 -13% 405 285 $3,457 $3,879,952 2 Neon
2 A Star is Born $890,000 -52% 810 -425 $1,099 $214,678,255 23 Warner Bros.
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $680,000 -68% 824 -1580 $825 $188,821,684 13 Sony / Columbia
4 Cold Pursuit $560,000 -66% 823 -942 $680 $31,161,970 5 Lionsgate / Summit
5 Bohemian Rhapsody $370,000 -62% 386 -453 $959 $215,228,036 19 20th Century Fox
6 Ralph Breaks the Internet $300,000 33% 209 5 $1,435 $200,557,283 16 Disney
7 The Favourite $270,000 -67% 278 -464 $971 $33,819,298 16 Fox Searchlight
8 Mary Poppins Returns $200,000 -6% 215 -30 $930 $171,503,260 12 Disney
9 Total Dhamaal $150,000 -66% 117 -92 $1,282 $2,014,552 3 FIP
10 The Prodigy $100,000 -76% 152 -381 $658 $14,636,953 5 Orion Pictures

===

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Captain Marvel earned a strong $20.7 million start at the domestic box office Thursday night with fan events beginning at 6pm and all other shows at 7pm. For the full view of how that compares to other films, Carol Danvers’ pre-weekend start registered:

  • 18 percent behind Black Panther ($25.2 million)
  • 43 percent ahead of Thor: Ragnarok ($14.5 million)
  • 34 percent ahead of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($15.4 million)
  • 88 percent ahead of Wonder Woman ($11 million)
  • 22 percent ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($17 million)
  • 27 percent ahead of Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million)
  • 120 percent ahead of Doctor Strange ($9.4 million)

The list could go on, but as always, the caveat centers around varying release timing, holidays in some cases, and other factors. Nevertheless, this is an excellent start for the MCU’s latest chapter as the fifth highest MCU launch in history (trailing only Avengers: Age of Ultron, Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Captain America: Civil War) — and more notably, the second highest among MCU solo films outside of Panther.

Internationally, the film has earned $44 million in two days across 42 territories, which excludes a flash estimate of $34 million from China’s opening day. From Disney:

It began rolling out Wednesday in 18 material markets (including Korea, France and Italy), followed by an additional 24 yesterday (including Germany, Russia, Australia and Brazil). Today, in addition to its North American debut, Captain Marvel opens in China, UK, Mexico and Spain along with Iceland, Poland, South Africa, Turkey, India, Vietnam, Venezuela and Ecuador, meaning that it will be open in all international markets this weekend except for Japan (Mar 15).

The estimated international gross of $44.0M does not include any China grosses yet. Early estimates out of China, debuting today Mar 8, indicate an opening day of around $34M, which would be the 2nd highest MCU opening day there behind only Avengers: Infinity War.

Overall, the film is opening as the #1 western release in all markets as well as the highest March debut in many and highest first stand-alone character MCU opening day in most. Some other highlights include the 2nd highest opening day in industry history in Brazil, behind only Avengers: Infinity War, as well as one of the highest ever opening days in Indonesia. 

More updates to follow throughout the weekend.

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