Sunday Update: Incredibles 2 continues to blast past even optimistic expectations with what Disney reports this morning will be an estimated $180 million domestic weekend. Check out the studio weekend estimates here as well as further opening day analysis below.
Saturday Update: Disney / Pixar’s The Incredibles 2 posted a massive $71.546 million opening day, including all pre-Friday earnings. That sets a new all-time high for the animation medium, coming in 31 percent ahead of Finding Dory‘s $54.75 million first day two years ago.
As we and the studio both continue to note, weekend estimates are more volatile than usual given the unprecedented territory this sequel is in for an animated film. Of note, nearly 26 percent of Incredibles 2‘s first day earnings came from Wednesday and Thursday night’s pre-shows. That’s a higher share than Finding Dory‘s 17 percent, and slightly below the 30 percent shares of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Spider-Man: Homecoming, confirming our previous expectation that some front-loading would skew projections away from the patterns of animated titles and more toward live action flicks.
With that being said, we’re holding close to the high end of the studio’s official estimate this morning which calls for a stellar weekend total between $160 million and $170 million. Given the sequel’s excellent word of mouth thus far, and an inevitable Father’s Day boost on Sunday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that range climb yet again before actuals are delivered after weeks of increasingly optimistic tracking.
More records are sure to fall in the days ahead, but here are some key takeaways thus far:
- 2nd highest June opening day of all-time (ahead of The Twilight Saga: Eclipse‘s $68.5 million) and trailing only Jurassic World ($82 million)
- 14th highest opening day of all-time (ahead of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2‘s $71.2 million)
- 25th highest opening day of all-time when adjusted for inflation, topping Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith ($50 million non-adjusted / $71.5 million adjusted) — Thursday opener / no pre-midnight shows
- 74 percent more than Toy Story 3‘s opening day ($41.15 million non-adjusted / $47.8 million adjusted) — no pre-midnight Friday shows
- 86 percent more than Shrek the Third‘s opening day ($38.43 million non-adjusted / $51.2 million adjusted) — no pre-midnight Friday shows
- highest opening day of all-time for a superhero film not featuring Batman or Marvel Cinematic Universe characters
- highest opening day of all-time for a non-Marvel / non-Star Wars film from Disney
On other fronts:
- Ocean’s 8 added $5.915 million for an updated $65.535 million domestic total
- Tag debuted to a healthy $5.4 million on Friday
- Solo: A Star Wars Story added $2.335 million for an updated $186.1 million domestic total
- Deadpool 2 added $2.3 million for an updated $288.2 million domestic total
- Superfly added $1.87 million on day three of release, standing at $5.865 million thus far
- Hereditary added $2.2 million for an updated $22.4 million domestic total
- Avengers: Infinity War added $1.42 million for an updated $660.3 million domestic total
Early weekend estimates are below (some official studio estimates are included).
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 15 – SUN, JUN. 17
|1||The Incredibles 2||$170,000,000||—||4,410||—||$38,549||$170,000,000||1||Disney|
|2||Ocean’s 8||$20,500,000||-51%||4,145||0||$4,946||$80,120,170||2||Warner Bros.|
|3||Tag (2018)||$14,800,000||—||3,382||—||$4,376||$14,800,000||1||Warner Bros.|
|4||Solo: A Star Wars Story||$9,000,000||-43%||3,182||-1153||$2,828||$192,764,087||4||Disney|
|8||Avengers: Infinity War||$5,300,000||-27%||2,164||-718||$2,449||$664,203,950||8||Disney|
|10||Book Club||$1,700,000||-60%||1,656||-1146||$1,027||$61,850,093||5||Paramount Pictures|
|2||A Wrinkle in Time||$2,000,000||1867%||245||88||$8,163||$100,228,127||15||Walt Disney Pictures|
|3||Race 3||$1,600,000||—||315||—||$5,079||$1,600,000||1||Yash Raj Films|
|4||Overboard||$460,000||-60%||581||-475||$792||$48,591,784||7||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|5||Breaking In||$452,000||-69%||504||-658||$897||$45,191,605||6||Universal Pictures|
|6||Life Of The Party||$440,000||-80%||608||-1234||$724||$51,841,768||6||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|7||A Quiet Place||$335,000||-68%||397||-507||$844||$186,433,807||11||Paramount|
|8||Show Dogs||$211,555||-73%||427||-721||$495||$17,144,272||5||Global Road Entertainment|
|1||Won’t You Be My Neighbor?||$1,000,000||110%||96||67||$10,417||$1,707,704||2||Focus Features|
|2||2001: A Space Odyssey (2018 re-issue)||$120,000||25%||13||8||$9,231||$1,242,946||5||Warner Bros.|
|3||Chappaquiddick||$5,000||-45%||14||-15||$357||$17,371,510||11||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
Friday Update: Disney announced this morning that Pixar’s Incredibles 2 blasted off to a massive $18.5 million, more than doubling the previous record Thursday night opening for an animated title — formerly Finding Dory‘s $9.2 million. An anonymous studio source confirms that figure includes earnings from Wednesday night’s double features, but those did not contribute a significant amount to the total.
All told, this is quite simply unprecedented territory for an animated film. For reference, Incredibles 2 even soared past the Thursday night openings of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($17 million) and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($15.4 million), while matching Jurassic World ($18.5 million).
Weekend projections are highly volatile at this stage as this kind of performance likely indicates the film is performing like a typical live action sequel with huge anticipation and audience interest behind it. This stellar early performance is so far backed by the loyal Pixar and Incredibles fan bases, as well as families in general with schools on break following a spring/summer season that lacked a major animated event film until now — but nothing is certain until we see how Friday proper plays out. Sunday’s holiday in the form of Father’s Day adds another X factor into the mix, one that will surely play to this film’s advantage toward the end of the weekend.
At this point, we’re not deviating significantly from our pre-weekend forecast that called for an opening weekend range of $136-165 million. For example, if the film plays out similarly to Spider-Man: Homecoming from here on out, it would take in approximately $140 million this weekend, while a performance similar to Guardians Vol. 2 would net closer to $160 million. Extrapolations from Dory, Jurassic World, and even Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million Thursday launch) would be significantly higher, but it’s too early to speculate about those kinds of daily holds for the reasons mentioned above.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros.’ Tag got off to a solid start with $1.325 million last night. Key comps for that ensemble-driven comedy include Blockers ($1.5 million Thursday / $20.6 million weekend), Game Night ($1.0 million / $17.0 million), and Mike & Dave Need a Wedding Date ($1.6 million / $16.6 million). The latter may be the more representative given its similar summer release date.
The weekend’s third opener, Superfly, added $935,000 in its second full day of release on Thursday. That gives it $2.14 million thus far heading into the weekend.
Follow us throughout the weekend for continued updates.