Weekend Estimates: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Gunning for $60M+ Debut; ‘Teen Titans’ Toon Up $11M+ Start

Saturday Update: Paramount reports Mission: Impossible – Fallout bowed to a strong $23 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday night’s $6 million early grosses. Updated projection models now position the film’s opening weekend close to $60-63 million, landing generally close to expectations. Reception is strong across the board with an “A” CinemaScore for the film, a 94 percent Flixster user score, and 97 percent from Rotten Tomatoes critics, further suggesting another long, late summer run from Tom Cruise’s venerable blockbuster franchise.

Here’s how Fallout‘s opening day stacked up at the box office against comparable titles:

  • 4 percent ahead of War for the Planet of the Apes ($22.1 million)
  • 1.7 percent ahead of Jason Bourne ($22.6 million)
  • 3.4 percent ahead of Star Trek Beyond ($22.3 million)
  • 13.3 percent ahead of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($20.3 million)

Further analysis and international updates for the sixth Mission to follow on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Teen Titans GO! to the Movies proved to be more frontloaded on Thursday evening than expected. The film took in $4.25 million on opening day Friday, with nearly one-quarter of those earnings coming from Thursday shows. This indicates a more fan-heavy turnout than pre-release tracking had suggested, although the ‘toon’s own positive reviews — and the film’s minimal competition through the remainder of summer — could help it generate respectable staying power in the days and weeks ahead. Current projections for the weekend suggest a frame between $11-14 million.

Early weekend estimates are below with official projections from Fox, Sony (excluding Sicario: Day of the Soldado), and Universal. Updated estimates from all major studios to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUL. 27 – SUN, JUL. 29

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $61,000,000 4,386 $13,908 $61,000,000 1 Paramount
2 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again $15,300,000 -56% 3,514 197 $4,354 $70,724,525 2 Universal Pictures
3 The Equalizer 2 $13,650,000 -62% 3,388 0 $4,029 $63,881,345 2 Sony / Columbia
4 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $12,415,000 -48% 4,005 -262 $3,100 $119,338,501 5 Sony / Columbia
5 Teen Titans GO! to the Movies $11,300,000 3,188 $3,545 $11,300,000 9 Warner Bros.
6 Ant-Man and the Wasp $8,900,000 -46% 3,013 -765 $2,954 $183,624,127 4 Disney
7 Incredibles 2 $7,500,000 -37% 2,616 -548 $2,867 $573,123,648 7 Disney
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $7,050,000 -37% 2,685 -696 $2,626 $397,828,500 6 Universal
9 Skyscraper $5,470,000 -52% 2,773 -1049 $1,973 $59,219,760 3 Universal Pictures
10 The First Purge $2,280,000 -55% 1,400 -931 $1,629 $65,533,875 4 Universal Pictures
11 Unfriended: Dark Web $1,500,000 -59% 1,547 1 $970 $1,500,000 2 OTL Releasing

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Sorry To Bother You $1,500,000 -48% 802 -248 $1,870 $13,401,421 4 Annapurna Pictures
2 Blindspotting $1,200,000 254% 523 509 $2,294 $1,668,984 2 Lionsgate / Summit
3 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $657,000 -65% 574 -874 $1,145 $48,707,874 5 Sony / Black Label
4 Ocean’s 8 $640,000 -60% 518 -484 $1,236 $137,297,915 8 Warner Bros.
5 Uncle Drew $470,000 -69% 532 -705 $883 $41,361,671 5 Lionsgate / Summit
6 Avengers: Infinity War $430,000 1% 292 -2 $1,473 $677,586,078 14 Disney
7 Deadpool 2 $280,000 -41% 267 -106 $1,049 $317,678,854 11 Fox
8 Tag (2018) $270,000 -61% 308 -273 $877 $53,539,175 7 Warner Bros.
9 Solo: A Star Wars Story $160,000 -35% 165 -43 $970 $212,738,759 10 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Sanju $71,900 -68% 44 -68 $1,634 $7,809,464 5 FIP
2 Black Panther $3,500 -86% 15 -139 $233 $699,955,934 24 Disney

===

Friday Update: Paramount reports this morning that Mission: Impossible – Fallout brought in an estimated $6.0 million from Thursday night’s domestic opening shows at 3,300 locations, marking a strong start to the weekend. Here’s how that number stacks up against notable comparison titles:

  • 19.8 percent ahead of War for the Planet of the Apes ($5.01 million)
  • 39.5 percent ahead of Jason Bourne ($4.3 million)
  • 9.1 percent ahead of Star Trek Beyond ($5.5 million)
  • 50 percent ahead of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($4.0 million)

Meanwhile, Teen Titans GO! to the Movies earned $1.025 million from its first shows, setting the stage for what should be a very healthy performance over the weekend. Comparisons:

  • 13.9 percent ahead of The Emoji Movie ($900,000)
  • 57.7 percent ahead of Captain Underpants ($650,000)

Check out Boxoffice’s weekend forecast for further analysis on the new releases, and follow us on Twitter throughout the weekend for further updates.

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