Saturday Update: Paramount reports this morning that Terminator: Dark Fate bowed to $10.6 million domestically on opening day Friday. Unfortunately, this sets the sequel up for a debut weekend well below industry and studio expectations, and on the most conservative end of our own bearish forecasts entering the weekend.
Comparison-wise, Dark Fate‘s first day registered 16 percent behind Blade Runner 2049 ($12.6 million), 25 percent behind Dark Phoenix ($14.04 million), and 31 percent behind Alien: Covenant ($15.3 million). Those three titles ultimately pulled opening weekends of $32.75 million, $32.8 million, and $36.2 million, respectively.
Although the hope had been that Friday’s business would pick up significantly from Thursday night’s shows (presumably softened by Halloween activities), that didn’t happen.
This first day domestic result will make it challenging for the film to surpass $30 million by Sunday’s end, although it’s technically possible given the target older male audience and aim toward matinee play. For example, Blade Runner 2049 earned 3.35 times its Friday proper gross (sans Thursday previews). Should Dark Fate follow a similar pattern, it would top out at exactly $30 million stateside through Sunday.
Debuting in a strong second place, Focus Features’ Harriet earned $3.9 million on Friday, besting the start of last week’s Black and Blue ($3.06 million opening day / $8.4 million weekend) and leaping far past Marshall ($1.04 million / $3.0 million) two years ago. We’re projecting around $11 million for Harriet‘s Friday-Sunday start.
Capping off the openers, Motherless Brooklyn bowed to a muted $1.055 million in semi-wide release at 1,342 locations, while Arctic Dogs is misfiring with just $700K on opening day from 2,844 theaters. Our early estimates for those titles are in the chart below.
Meanwhile, Joker continues to laugh up incredible holding power with another $3.84 million earned on its 29th day of release, down just 30 percent from last Friday. With $289.5 million in the domestic bank so far, the blockbuster DC film is pacing for a fifth weekend take north of $13 million.
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 1 – SUN, NOV. 3
|1||Terminator: Dark Fate||$29,000,000||—||4,086||—||$7,097||$29,000,000||1||Paramount|
|3||Maleficent: Mistress of Evil||$12,400,000||-36%||3,820||30||$3,246||$84,549,711||3||Disney|
|5||The Addams Family||$8,200,000||-32%||3,607||-600||$2,273||$84,996,000||4||United Artists Releasing|
|6||Zombieland: Double Tap||$6,900,000||-42%||3,337||-131||$2,068||$58,857,162||3||Sony Pictures|
|8||Black and Blue||$3,900,000||-53%||2,062||0||$1,891||$15,292,478||2||Sony / Screen Gems|
|9||Motherless Brooklyn||$3,100,000||—||1,342||—||$2,310||$3,100,000||1||Warner Bros.|
|10||Arctic Dogs||$2,800,000||—||2,844||—||$985||$2,800,000||1||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
|11||Gemini Man||$1,800,000||-56%||1,872||-1136||$962||$46,834,069||4||Paramount Pictures|
|12||The Current War||$1,200,000||-54%||1,082||60||$1,109||$4,945,233||2||101 Studios|
|2||Jojo Rabbit||$2,300,000||120%||256||201||$8,984||$4,185,236||3||Fox Searchlight|
|3||Downton Abbey||$1,100,000||-44%||912||-746||$1,206||$94,420,540||7||Focus Features|
|5||The Lion King||$115,000||-22%||158||-41||$728||$543,353,323||16||Walt Disney Pictures|
|6||Ad Astra||$90,000||-67%||137||-188||$657||$49,544,276||7||20th Century Fox|
|7||Rambo: Last Blood||$70,000||-66%||205||-231||$341||$44,688,981||7||Lionsgate|
|8||Toy Story 4||$45,000||-28%||105||-16||$429||$433,867,761||20||Disney|
|1||No Safe Spaces||$70,000||54%||11||10||$6,364||$128,724||2||Atlas Distribution|
|2||Jexi||$25,000||-81%||87||-235||$287||$6,529,508||4||Lionsgate / CBS / Entertainment One|
Friday Report: Paramount’s Terminator: Dark Fate landed with an estimated $2.35 million from shows beginning at 7pm last night. The sci-fi franchise revival earned a few ticks more than the $2.3 million Tuesday night start of its “predecessor”, Terminator: Genisys, when it opened midsummer 2015.
While Dark Fate came in behind the starts of films like Blade Runner 2049 ($4.0 million) and Alien: Covenant ($4.2 million), it did register ahead of Ender’s Game ($1.4 million). That last comp is particularly relevant since it also had Thursday previews land on Halloween — likely depressing attendance on some level for the Terminator pic.
Ultimately, Friday and weekend matinee business could be notably stronger than last night’s results seem at first glance, but it remains to be seen whether or not the sequel can break out past expectations.
Focus Features’ Harriet also kicked off its opening weekend with 7pm shows last night, earning a healthy $600K. That’s on par with last week’s Black and Blue, which earned $675K from previews and didn’t have to contend with Halloween festivities.
Meanwhile, Arctic Dogs and Motherless Brooklyn opted out of Thursday night shows and will begin their runs on Friday proper.
For more insights on the weekend ahead, check out our previous forecast. More updates to follow…