Weekend Estimates: Toy Story 4 Eyes $55M+ Second Frame; Annabelle Comes Home Pacing for Solid $30M+ 5-Day Start; Yesterday Beats Expectations w/ Strong $16M+

Saturday Update: Toy Story 4 is heading for another first place finish this weekend, as expected, with Disney reporting a $17.04 million Friday. That brings the hit sequel’s domestic total to $196.0 million through four days of play, 6 percent ahead of the eight-day pace of Toy Story 3 nine years ago ($185.5 million). With yesterday’s earnings, Boxoffice projects the sophomore frame will land around $56 million.

Annabelle Comes Home is pacing to take second place this weekend as it added $6.6 million in its third day of release, climbing to $17.4 million since its domestic Wednesday debut. Although it’s performing slightly below our pre-release forecasts as it paces 13 percent behind the three-day total of The First Purge last year ($19.965 million), the film is still in very profitable territory and continues the Conjuring franchise’s sustained success. Boxoffice projects around a $20 million weekend, which would net a five-day opening north of $30 million stateside. Internationally, the WB/New Line pic stands at $21.1 million through Friday.

Opening in a strong third place, Universal’s Yesterday scored $6.06 million on opening day Friday (including Thursday night’s earnings). Director Danny Boyle and screenwriter Richard Curtis’s love letter to Beatles fans marks the latest musically-driven success on the big screen. As the film looks to over-perform against pre-release tracking and expectations, we’re expecting between $16 million and $17 million this weekend.

Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame‘s expansion to 2,025 yielded $1.864 million on Friday and brings the domestic haul to $837.65 million. We’re projecting a $6 million+ domestic weekend. Disney hasn’t provided a global update as of this report, but if a similarly strong increase was seen from major markets internationally, the Marvel epic is now a few steps closer to reaching its goal of toppling Avatar‘s $2.788 billion worldwide record. Endgame stood at $2.752 billion before Friday.

Early domestic weekend estimates are below. Studio updates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 28 – SUN, JUN. 30

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Toy Story 4 $56,000,000 -54% 4,575 0 $12,240 $234,989,809 2 Disney
2 Annabelle Comes Home $20,500,000 3,613 $5,674 $31,334,459 1 Warner Bros.
3 Yesterday $16,900,000 2,603 $6,493 $16,900,000 1 Universal Pictures
4 Aladdin $9,700,000 -27% 3,235 -200 $2,998 $306,217,946 6 Disney
5 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $6,700,000 -35% 3,353 -451 $1,998 $130,812,000 4 Universal
6 Avengers: Endgame $6,600,000 232% 2,025 1040 $3,259 $842,381,161 10 Disney
7 Men in Black: International $6,100,000 -43% 3,663 -561 $1,665 $64,580,511 3 Sony / Columbia
8 Child’s Play $4,400,000 -69% 3,007 0 $1,463 $23,528,399 2 United Artists Releasing
9 Rocketman $3,500,000 -38% 2,003 -411 $1,747 $83,803,960 5 Paramount Pictures
10 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $2,900,000 -29% 1,550 -57 $1,871 $161,040,088 7 Lionsgate
11 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $2,000,000 -48% 1,370 -998 $1,460 $106,530,951 5 Warner Bros.
12 Dark Phoenix $1,600,000 -55% 1,187 -867 $1,348 $63,484,878 4 Fox
13 Anna $1,400,000 -61% 2,114 0 $662 $6,631,309 2 Lionsgate / Summit

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Shaft $1,300,000 -63% 947 -2005 $1,373 $18,724,833 3 Warner Bros.
2 The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith $675,000 205 $3,293 $675,000 1 ArtAffects Entertainment
3 Ma (2019) $480,000 -58% 468 -394 $1,026 $44,677,700 5 Universal Pictures
4 Dumbo $80,000 -33% 120 -20 $667 $114,424,069 14 Walt Disney Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Captain Marvel $25,000 -59% 84 -61 $298 $426,810,827 17 Disney
2 Breakthrough $20,000 -48% 54 -18 $370 $40,694,266 11 20th Century Fox

Friday Report: Warner Bros. and New Line’s Annabelle Comes Home added $3.635 million on Thursday after its $7.19 million opening day Wednesday, giving the horror franchise sequel a two-day domestic haul of $10.822 million going into the weekend. Comparisons are limited at this point given the mid-week opening, fan following, and proximity to next week’s holiday corridor, but the film currently stands 22 percent behind the two-day pace of last year’s The First Purge, which also opened on a Wednesday (although it was the Fourth of July).

Meanwhile, Yesterday bowed last night to an estimated $1.25 million from shows beginning at 7pm in 2,200 locations. That’s not far off from the $1.75 million earned by Rocketman‘s Thursday night shows last month (which excluded $580K in Fandango preview earnings from a previous night).

More updates to follow throughout the weekend as Toy Story 4 is again expected to reign atop the box office.