Weekend Forecast: Spider-Man: Far From Home Looks to Web Second #1 Finish as Stuber and Crawl Debut

July rolls on this weekend as the market welcomes two new wide releases, but it will be Sony and Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Far From Home that will reign atop the box office in its second weekend.

Following Spidey’s $185.1 million six-day domestic launch, strong word of mouth has settled in for the epilogue to the end of the MCU’s third phase. With minimal competition ahead and the mid-week opening around Fourth of July last week, a sub-50 percent weekend-to-weekend drop appears more than feasible.

Also looking to post a strong hold this weekend will be Toy Story 4, which likewise faces no new challengers and continues to enjoy a leggy run heading into its fourth frame. Both it and Far From Home will face major competition next week, though, when Disney unleashes their live action remake of The Lion King.

Back on the immediate front, Fox’s Stuber will hope to attract fans of Kumail Nanjiani and Dave Bautista with one of the few straight-up comedies to release this summer. To this point, the most optimistic comps appear to be films like last year’s Tag ($15 million opening) and 2016’s Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates ($16.6 million).

Meanwhile, Paramount will cater to teen and young adult horror fans with Crawl, a creature feature that has some slight upside given the genre’s penchant for over-performers in recent years via films like 47 Meters Down ($11.2 million) and The Shallows ($16.8 million).

Weekend Ranges

Spider-Man: Far from Home ($45 – 50 million)
Toy Story 4 ($20 – 24 million)
Stuber ($8 – 15 million)
Crawl ($7 – 14 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten will decline approximately 20 – 25 percent from the same frame last year when Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($44.1 million) and Skyscraper ($24.9 million) debuted among a top ten which generated $154 million.

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 14 % Change from Last Wknd
Spider-Man: Far From Home Sony / Columbia $48,400,000 $278,400,000 -48%
Toy Story 4 Disney / Pixar $21,800,000 $346,700,000 -36%
Stuber Fox $11,900,000 $11,900,000 NEW
Crawl Paramount $10,500,000 $10,500,000 NEW
Yesterday Universal $6,800,000 $48,300,000 -32%
Aladdin (2019) Disney $5,400,000 $330,600,000 -28%
Annabelle Comes Home Warner Bros. / New Line $5,300,000 $60,200,000 -44%
Midsommar A24 $3,400,000 $18,000,000 -48%
The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal / Illumination $3,300,000 $147,100,000 -29%
Men In Black International Sony / Columbia $2,100,000 $76,300,000 -44%

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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