The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 3 – 5, 2026
Week 27 | July 3 – 5, 2026
1. Minions & Monsters
Universal/Illumination | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $65M – $75M
Showtime Market Share: 31%
Pros
- Universal and Illumination team up once again for the seventh installment in their Despicable Me franchise, which has made nearly $2 billion domestically and over $5.6 billion worldwide. Minions & Monsters is also the third in the spin-off series about the little yellow henchmen, the first two of which stand as the top openers of the whole series. The first Minions in 2015 had a $115.7M debut before totaling $336M domestic/$1.15B WW, while 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru opened to $107M before totaling $370.5M and $937.7M WW. All six prior movies have performed very well in the early July release window, with a median domestic total of $325M, making it one of the most consistent franchises in circulation.
Cons
- Utilizing an early 20th century Hollywood setting with lots of silent film in-jokes, this Minions just might go over a lot of kids’ (and parents’) heads, but with enough cartoonish antics to satisfy. Early Rotten Tomatoes score is 93%, and it performed well in its soft overseas launch this weekend with $10.3M from 10 markets. We expect the spin-off franchise to slow down with this installment, anticipating an opening 3-Day somewhat in line with Week 2 of Toy Story 5 ($70.8M) and a 5-Day holiday frame between $80M to $95M, owing to heavy family competition plus a lot of the audience showing up for Wednesday/Thursday before the July 4 festivities. In terms of word-of-mouth, it’ll need more than “Banana!” to come in higher.
2. Toy Story 5
Disney/Pixar | Week 3
Weekend Range: $33M – $38M
Showtime Market Share: 17%
Pros
- Even though it will fall off its #1 perch, Toy Story 5 has already posted terrific numbers in its first two weeks, and is about to cross the $300M domestic mark and $600M worldwide. Now that schools are let out, expect a super-charged July 4 holiday weekend. We expect a strong showing in its third frame.
Cons
- Minions & Monsters will siphon off some of that family audience, with both movies cannibalizing each other to a certain extent. Although it had a very good second frame at #1, Toy Story 5 suffered the biggest sophomore weekend drop of the Pixar franchise. Chalk it up to a general malaise at the box office right now, especially towards established franchises and name brands.
Battle for Third
Young Washington
Angel Studios | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
- While early reviews from the Tribeca Film Festival have found it lacking at a 67% RT critical score, Angel Studios’ historical origin story Young Washington is a well-timed slice of ra-ra patriotism. Telling the story of George Washington (William Franklyn-Miller) in the years prior to the Revolutionary War and his presidency, it appears to be aimed enough down-the-middle to not prove divisive to either ends of the American poltical spectrum.
Cons
- A July 3 opening should give Young Washington a $15M – $20M 4-Day debut to coincide with America’s 250th anniversary. If the CinemaScore puts up good results, look for this one to post some strong holds beyond Angel’s core audience. At this point, we think it may have enough strength around it to beat Supergirl in the 3-Day derby.
Supergirl
Warner Bros./DC Studios | Week 2
Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- There’s no getting around the optics of Supergirl ‘s crash landing at the box office, a $37M debut is far from what Warner Bros. and exhibitors were hoping for. Luckily, this does not feel like a referendum against female-led comic book movies, since Wonder Woman ($822.96M WW), Captain Marvel ($1.13B WW), and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($859.2M) already put that notion to rest. The Supergirl misstep is a fiasco to itself, but we don’t see it as part of a trend bigger than the movie on its own.
Cons
- After an underwhelming launch weekend with critics, audiences, and at the box office, we expect a significant drop well over -50% for this title—especially considering the alternatives available for moviegoers’ time and money. It’s an early misstep for James Gunn at the helm of DC, but proves little beyond the new leadership being unable to revive a C-tier character from their roster. Clayface will let us see if they can get a Venom-style hit, or if it’ll be another Morbius-like mishap. The real test of Gunn’s DC-verse won’t come until next summer’s Man of Tomorrow.
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