Weekend Projections: ‘Star Trek Beyond’ Warps to $59M Bow; ‘Lights Out’ Breaks Out to $22.3M; ‘Ice Age: Collision Course’ Underwhelms w/ $22M

Saturday Update: Paramount reports this morning that Star Trek Beyond cashed in $22.5 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday evening’s $5.5 million bow. Despite coming in below the first days of its two predecessors (Into Darkness was technically lower, but had a staggered opening on Wednesday and Thursday in May 2013), this nonetheless represents another successful launch for the third film in the rebooted era of the venerable franchise celebrating its 50th anniversary this year.

By comparison, Friday’s Beyond figure came in 11 percent ahead of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation‘s $20.3 million opening day last July and technically stands as the second highest opening day in Trek franchise history (the 2009 reboot claimed $26.9 million sans Thursday numbers). With excellent reviews (86 percent) and word of mouth (85 percent) so far, we expect the film to hold up well in the days and weeks ahead. We’re officially projecting a three-day weekend of $59 million based on Friday’s figures. (Worth noting is that would be nearly identical to the $60 million inflation-adjusted opening weekend — $30.7 million non-adjusted — of 1996’s Star Trek: First Contact, which premiered during the franchise’s 30th anniversary).

Debuting in a strong second place yesterday was Warner Bros. / New Line’s Lights Out from producer James Wan, claiming $9.15 million. The original horror flick had been the recipient of strong buzz over the past few months, and Wan’s name certainly had something to do with that given his streak of commercial success lately. By comparison, this summer’s previous sleeper thriller hit — The Shallows — bowed to a (still strong) $6.88 million on its opening day last month. Lights Out is playing very well among critics and horror fans, so we expect some decent staying power throughout the end of summer. Look for an opening weekend around $22.3 million.

Ice Age: Collision Course earned an estimated $7.8 million on opening day, down 53 percent from its predecessor’s $16.73 million first day in July 2012. For the weekend, we’re projecting around $22 million.

Also noteworthy: The Secret Life of Pets eased 43 percent from last Friday to $8.65 million yesterday, giving it a 15-day haul of $240 million as it looks toward a third frame around $28.9 million.

Ghostbusters slid 64 percent from opening day last week to $6.2 million yesterday, giving it an eight-day cume of $71.5 million with a pace toward $20.5 million for its sophomore frame.

Finding Dory added another $2.087 million yesterday, giving it $455.07 million domestically as it continues to build on its total as the highest grossing animated film in history. Around a $7.1 million weekend is ahead.

Hillary’s America posted $1.362 million in its first day of wide release, down significantly from the $2.255 million of Obama’s America four years ago when it expanded to a similar number of theaters. A weekend around $3.9 million appears likely.

Meanwhile, Absolutely Fabulous bowed to $660,000 from 313 locations yesterday. Look for a weekend around $1.6 million.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Star Trek Beyond $59,000,000 3,928 $15,020 $59,000,000 1 Paramount
2 The Secret Life of Pets $28,900,000 -43% 4,048 -333 $7,139 $260,278,745 3 Universal
3 Lights Out $22,300,000 2,818 $7,913 $22,300,000 1 Warner Bros. / New Line
4 Ice Age: Collision Course $22,000,000 3,992 $5,511 $22,000,000 1 Fox
5 Ghostbusters (2016) $20,500,000 -55% 3,963 0 $5,173 $85,756,739 2 Sony / Columbia
6 Finding Dory $7,100,000 -37% 2,576 -960 $2,756 $460,079,119 6 Disney
7 The Legend of Tarzan $6,200,000 -46% 2,844 -707 $2,180 $115,594,084 4 Warner Bros.
8 Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates $4,300,000 -44% 2,137 -871 $2,012 $40,257,747 3 Fox
9 Hillary’s America – The Secret History of the Democratic Party $3,900,000 5113% 1,217 1214 $3,205 $3,991,524 2 D’Souza EntertainmentQuality Flix
10 Central Intelligence $2,700,000 -50% 1,602 -779 $1,685 $123,018,163 6 Warner Bros. / New Line
11 The Purge: Election Year $2,300,000 -63% 1,701 -970 $1,352 $76,542,220 4 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie $1,600,000 313 $5,112 $1,600,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 The BFG $920,000 -76% 686 -1496 $1,341 $50,863,057 4 Disney / DreamWorks
3 Independence Day: Resurgence $850,000 -76% 730 -1560 $1,164 $101,174,325 5 Fox
4 The Shallows $625,000 -79% 513 -1182 $1,218 $53,613,125 5 Sony / Columbia
5 The Jungle Book (2016) $445,000 -14% 233 -43 $1,910 $361,674,897 15 Disney
6 Now You See Me 2 $305,000 -56% 257 -266 $1,187 $64,287,535 7 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Captain America: Civil War $118,000 -34% 116 -68 $1,017 $406,804,345 12 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cafe Society $730,000 103% 50 45 $14,600 $1,232,379 2 Lionsgate / Amazon
2 Train To Busan $235,000 27 $8,704 $235,000 1 Inc. Well Go USA
3 Alice Through the Looking Glass $52,000 -47% 78 -29 $667 $76,462,381 9 Disney
4 Zootopia $36,000 -48% 84 -47 $429 $341,232,778 21 Disney

Friday Report: Sources are reporting this morning that Star Trek Beyond warped into release with an estimated $5.5 million haul on Thursday night. Comparisons are somewhat skewed to the last two entries in the franchise with their non-standard opening nights, but last night’s figure does come in noticeably ahead of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation‘s $4.0 million Thursday night start last July. The audiences may be more similar than one might think given the target adult audience of both franchises. Ultimately, this is a healthy start for Trek with strong reviews and early word of mouth indicating potential for legs.

Lights Out scared up an excellent $1.8 million last night, setting the stage for a breakout weekend ahead. By comparison, The Shallows rang up $1.33 million last month when it proved to be a mid-summer sleeper hit driven by positive reviews.

Meanwhile, Ice Age: Collision Course took in $850,000 last night — similar to the $800,000 of The Angry Birds Movie back in May. That said, the new release may prove more frontloaded with kids out of school at this point in the season.

Full Friday estimates and early weekend estimates will be published on Saturday morning.

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