Weekend Projections: ‘Suicide Squad’ Set to Demolish August Record w/ $135M Bow; ‘Nine Lives’ Eyes $6.9M Start

Saturday Update: Suicide Squad earned an estimated $65.125 million on opening day Friday, setting a new all-time record for August as it handily surpassed the $37.845 million first day of Guardians of the Galaxy two years ago. The third film in the DC Extended Universe also came in significantly ahead of Deadpool‘s $47.34 million opening day back in February, although the fact that many schools are still out of session played to Suicide‘s favor.

The unfortunate news, however, lies within the film’s poor early reception. The studio reports an underwhelming “B+” Cinemascore, while Flixster audiences have given it a 74 percent as of this morning — in line with Batman v Superman‘s 73 percent score after one day of release. In the wake of that news and poor critical reception (26 percent), we don’t expect the film to hold strongly after opening day. Our initial estimate for this weekend is $135 million. All things considered, that’s still an incredible debut for an obscurely known comic book property, but it remains to be seen whether or not global performance will justify the lofty production and marketing costs of the film.

Meanwhile, Nine Lives debuted to $2.37 million yesterday. Unfortunately, the family-centric title isn’t making much of a splash after a summer full of mega hits appealing to a similar younger audience. Look for an opening weekend around $6.9 million

Early weekend estimates are listed below. Check back on Sunday for official studio estimates and further analysis.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Suicide Squad $135,000,000 4,255 $31,727 $135,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 Jason Bourne $22,900,000 -61% 4,039 13 $5,670 $103,606,020 2 Universal
3 Bad Moms $14,600,000 -39% 3,215 0 $4,541 $51,446,830 2 STX Entertainment
4 The Secret Life of Pets $11,100,000 -41% 3,417 -260 $3,248 $319,118,780 5 Universal
5 Star Trek Beyond $9,700,000 -61% 3,263 -665 $2,973 $127,401,364 3 Paramount
6 Nine Lives (2016) $6,900,000 2,264 $3,048 $6,900,000 1 EuropaCorp Films
7 Lights Out $5,900,000 -45% 2,581 -254 $2,286 $54,609,252 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
8 Nerve $5,000,000 -47% 2,538 0 $1,970 $26,988,794 2 Lionsgate
9 Ghostbusters (2016) $4,600,000 -55% 2,545 -507 $1,807 $116,511,936 4 Sony / Columbia
10 Ice Age: Collision Course $4,000,000 -64% 2,738 -1259 $1,461 $53,239,797 3 Fox
11 Finding Dory $1,800,000 -58% 1,122 -611 $1,604 $473,714,641 8 Disney

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cafe Society $1,400,000 -40% 631 66 $2,219 $6,489,811 4 Lionsgate / Amazon
2 Hillary’s America – The Secret History of the Democratic Party $930,000 -62% 672 -394 $1,384 $11,120,946 4 D’Souza EntertainmentQuality Flix
3 Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie $315,000 -62% 226 -129 $1,394 $315,000 3 Fox Searchlight
4 The BFG $298,000 -35% 234 -39 $1,274 $52,794,771 6 Disney / DreamWorks
5 Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates $260,000 -82% 297 -773 $875 $45,065,620 5 Fox
6 The Jungle Book (2016) $219,000 -29% 200 -25 $1,095 $362,647,264 17 Disney
7 Captain America: Civil War $190,000 158% 174 89 $1,092 $407,180,096 14 Disney
8 Independence Day: Resurgence $168,000 -43% 165 -62 $1,018 $102,297,952 7 Fox
9 Alice Through the Looking Glass $100,000 -31% 126 -20 $794 $76,852,521 11 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Gleason $130,000 42% 69 60 $1,884 $264,618 2 Open Road / Amazon
2 Now You See Me 2 $54,000 -52% 85 -50 $635 $64,688,087 9 Lionsgate / Summit

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Friday Report: Warner Bros. reports this morning that Suicide Squad earned an estimated $20.5 million from Thursday night’s opening shows which began at 6pm. The studio reports that 12 percent ($2.4 million) came from IMAX screenings.

This figure easily bests the $11.2 million Thursday showing of Guardians of the Galaxy two years ago, setting a new all-time August record. Within the DC Extended Universe, Suicide came in 26 percent below the $27.7 million Thursday night bow of Batman v Superman back in March. Fox’s Deadpool rang up $12.7 million in February.

No Thursday grosses for Nine Lives had been reported at the time of this article’s publishing. Official Friday estimates from the studio and our early weekend estimates will be published here on Saturday morning.