Weekend Projections: ‘Transformers: The Last Knight’ Pacing for $40.5M 3-Day / $64.3M 5-Day Domestic Bow; ‘Cars 3’ Set to Add $26M; ‘Wonder Woman’ Eyes $27M

Saturday Update: Transformers: The Last Knight added an estimated $13.69 million to its domestic haul on Friday, according to Paramount. That gives the fourth sequel in the franchise a three-day tally of $37.5 million. The studio is projecting a Fri-Sat-Sun weekend of $40.5 million, which would give it an overall five-day bow around $64.3 million. Updated overseas results for the film were not yet announced at the time of this story’s publishing.

Cars 3 claimed second place with $7.57 million yesterday, bringing its eight-day haul to $82.3 million. Its sophomore frame should ring up around $26 million.

Wonder Woman continued to roll with $7.35 million yesterday, sending it past the $300 million domestic threshold as it continues to leg out ahead of all other DCEU titles. We’re expecting this weekend to total around $27 million.

Meanwhile, in limited release, The Big Sick posted a strong $133,750 opening day from 5 locations in New York and Los Angeles yesterday, giving it a $26,750 per location average. Kumail Nanjiani’s strongly reviewed romantic comedy could bring in a hefty $414,000 this weekend, based on Lionsgate’s own projections.

We’ll have full studio weekend estimates tomorrow. Key weekend projections are listed below.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Transformers: The Last Knight $40,500,000 4,069 $9,953 $64,295,489 1 Paramount
2 Wonder Woman $27,000,000 -35% 3,933 -85 $6,865 $320,205,158 4 Warner Bros.
3 Cars 3 $26,000,000 -52% 4,256 0 $6,109 $100,707,893 2 Disney
4 47 Meters Down $7,000,000 -38% 2,471 201 $2,833 $23,825,932 2 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
5 All Eyez On Me $6,000,000 -77% 2,471 0 $2,428 $38,792,319 2 Lionsgate / Summit
6 The Mummy $5,600,000 -61% 2,980 -1054 $1,879 $68,283,670 3 Universal
7 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $5,500,000 -39% 2,453 -306 $2,242 $160,265,326 5 Disney
8 Rough Night $5,000,000 -38% 3,162 0 $1,581 $16,934,947 2 Sony
9 Captain Underpants $4,850,000 -32% 2,328 -640 $2,083 $66,313,176 4 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
10 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $3,100,000 -39% 1,468 -345 $2,112 $380,313,327 8 Disney

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 It Comes At Night $780,000 -70% 819 -1631 $952 $13,023,168 3 A24
2 Alien: Covenant $360,000 -37% 294 -106 $1,224 $73,353,461 6 Fox
3 The Boss Baby $350,000 8% 241 -19 $1,452 $173,099,372 13 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
4 My Cousin Rachel $205,000 -61% 163 -368 $1,258 $2,435,675 3 Fox Searchlight
5 Snatched $110,000 -13% 173 -38 $636 $45,586,933 7 Fox
6 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $108,000 -67% 160 -95 $675 $20,326,914 6 20th Century Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Big Sick $414,000 5 $82,800 $414,000 1 Lionsgate
2 Gifted $52,000 -27% 76 -24 $684 $24,520,706 12 Fox Searchlight

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Friday Update: Transformers: The Last Knight added an estimated $8.1 million domestically on Thursday, marking a 48 percent drop from opening day Wednesday. That gives the fifth film in the franchise a two-day running total of $23.759 million in the States, 68 percent off its predecessor’s two-day total and 7 percent behind Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows‘ two-day haul. Based on past comparisons to Wednesday openers in late June, The Last Knight needs a significant bump on Friday and Saturday to remain on course for a five-day opening in the realm of $65-75 million.

Official Friday estimates from the studios and key weekend projections for the top ten will be posted here on Saturday.

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Thursday Update: Paramount reports this morning that Transformers: The Last Knight grossed an estimated $15.65 million on opening day Wednesday, including Tuesday night’s earnings. By comparison, that’s 75 percent ahead of Terminator: Genisys‘ $8.93 million opening Wednesday in mid-summer 2015, but 64 percent behind the $43.225 million combined Tuesday night+Wednesday first day of Transformers: Dark of the Moon — the last franchise entry to open on a Wednesday — and 63 percent behind Age of Extinction‘s Friday opening in late June 2014.

According to the studio, the fifth Transformers film drew 57 percent males and 43 percent females yesterday. Intriguingly, 51 percent of the audience were 25 years and older — down from its predecessor’s 58 percent share from that audience. This indicates that the young audience has increasingly become the target audience as older fans shy away from the series.

Based on Wednesday’s figures, Last Knight remains on course for an opening five-day frame somewhere in between $65-75 million. Updates for Thursday and Friday grosses will be published here when the studio has reported them.

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Wednesday Report: Paramount announced this morning that Transformers: The Last Knight nabbed an estimated $5.5 million from last night’s opening shows. The film debuted in 546 IMAX 3D locations at 7pm, while playing in approximately 3,000 locations at 8pm.

Comparisons are a bit of a stretch for now given the mid-week debut. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales scored an identical $5.5 million Thursday night launch last month, although that was before many schools were out of session. The previous Transformers: Age of Extinction took in $8.75 million on Thursday night with its late June 2014 opening.

Entering release, we had been forecasting a three-day weekend in the range of $50 million and a five-day haul close to $70 million, in line with the studio’s expectations at this time. Our complete weekend forecast will be published later today, while daily grosses for the new release will be posted here in the days ahead.

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