In what many expected to be a much closer race, Fox’s Hidden Figures led the box office for a second consecutive frame with an estimated $20.45 million three-day weekend, while the film anticipated to be its main competitor came in a disappointing sixth place instead. [Note: this article discusses three-day weekend estimates. Four-day estimates for the Martin Luther King Day weekend will be published on Monday, alongside four-day weekend actuals on Tuesday.]
Last weekend Hidden squeaked out a thin winning margin, beating Rogue One by less than $1 million, but this weekend it wins by nearly $6 million, declining only 10.3 percent on the three-day. the true story about three African-American women in the 1960s who helped lead the math and science for NASA won the Martin Luther King Day weekend, a frame often led by African-American led films: 2014’s Ride Along, 2016’s Ride Along 2, 2005’s Coach Carter, and 2007’s Stomp the Yard. Hidden has now earned $54.83 million to date, though it does seem highly unlikely to lead for a third straight weekend given next Friday’s releases of Split and xXx: The Return of Xander Cage.
Lionsgate’s La La Land rode its seven wins at last Sunday’s Golden Globes — making it the most successful film in Golden Globes history — to a second place finish with an estimated $14.50 million three-day weekend, up 43.1 percent for the three-day. In addition to expanding from 1,515 theaters last weekend to 1,848 this time, the film was likely helped by its wins for its trophies within the “Musical or Comedy” category for Best Picture, Best Actress for Emma Stone, Best Actor for Ryan Gosling, and Best Original Song for “City of Stars.” Also not hurting is its surging soundtrack, which this week leapt from #52 to #15 on the Billboard albums chart, and which Billboard projects is headed for the top five on next week’s chart. With $74.08 million banked so far, it appears likely to cross the $100 million mark before all is said and done — and possibly, best case scenario, even crossing $150 million.
Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story captured fourth with an estimated $13.75 million, a 37.6 percent decline, but on Friday passed Finding Dory’s $486.29 million to become the highest-grossing movie released in 2016. With $498.85 million and counting — and still holding on well, not having even left the top four yet — the film looks likely to pass $550 million and maybe even $600 million total. While its total through 31 days is 41.4 percent behind the absurdly high $852.27 million that 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned through the same point, it’s running 7.7 percent ahead of the inflation-adjusted $462.90 million earned by 2005’s Star Wars installment Revenge of the Sith through the same point.
Although five films opened in wide release this weekend, the best-performing among them was STX Entertainment’s horror The Bye Bye Man in fifth place, with an estimated $13.37 million three-day debut. No doubt helped by its Friday the 13th opening, the film doubled its $7.4 million production budget on its opening weekend alone. The audience was 61 percent female and 75 percent under age 25.
The Bye Bye Man started with an estimated $5.44 million on Friday (including $400 thousand from Thursday night previews), which actually made it the second-highest film at the box office that day. Then it dropped an estimated 11.0 percent on Saturday to $4.84 million, and is projected to decline a further 36.0 percent on Sunday to $3.09 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.45 to 1 — about in line with most horror movies. (The film’s plot centers on a mysterious figure who can kill you if you even think about him, so just in case that’s real, we probably shouldn’t write too much more about it.)
Lionsgate’s Patriots Day, expected to contend for the top spot with a weekend in the high-teens or low-20s, came in an underwhelming estimated $12.0 million and sixth place. The story of the Boston Marathon bombing starring Mark Wahlberg had experienced a good per-theater average in limited release, about akin to what Hidden Figures made per theater, but was unable to sustain that into its wide expansion.
Patriots Day started with an estimated $4.13 million on Friday (including $560 thousand from Thursday night previews), good for the #3 film at the box office that day. It actually improved an estimated 5.6 percent on Saturday to $4.36 million, and is projected to decline 19.5 percent on Sunday to $3.51 million. This places its wide opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.90 to 1.
Paramount’s Monster Trucks was not expected to be a huge box office hit, but came in third out of the five new releases this weekend when some anticipated it could come in fifth. With an estimated $10.50 million, the film starts in seventh place. Look for it to fade quickly, though, given its poor reviews and a youth-focused target demographic.
Monster Trucks started with an estimated $2.60 million on Friday, somewhat bafflingly surged a stunning estimated 79.6 percent on Saturday to $4.67 million, and is projected to decline 30.8 percent on Sunday to $3.23 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 4.03 to 1 — an absolutely massive ratio, assuming the metric holds by the time weekend actuals are released.
The two new crime thrillers opening this weekend both saw very middling grosses.
Open Road Films’ Sleepless starring Jamie Foxx opened to an estimated $8.48 million in eighth place. The film started with an estimated $3.01 million on Friday (including $410 thousand from Thursday night previews), improved an estimated 3.4 percent on Saturday to $3.11 million, and is projected to decline 25.0 percent on Sunday to $2.33 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.80 to 1 — although this film with its African-American lead stands to improve on Martin Luther King Day Monday more than most others out right now.
Warner Bros.’ Live By Night starring Ben Affleck, after lackluster per-theater averages in limited release, opened wide but failed to even crack the top 10, coming in 11th place with an estimated $5.42 million. It started with an estimated $1.95 million on Friday (including $325 thousand from Thursday night previews), declined an estimated 3.8 percent on Saturday to $1.87 million, and is projected to fall 14.7 percent on Sunday to $1.60 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.78 to 1.
The top 10 films earned an estimated $118.30 million for the three-day weekend. That’s 1.8 percent below the $120.49 million earned by the top 10 films last weekend, 17.2 percent behind the $142.91 million for this weekend last year when Star Wars: The Force Awakens led for the fourth consecutive frame with $42.35 million, and 18.6 percent behind the $145.50 million earned on Martin Luther King Day three-day weekend last year when Ride Along 2 led with $35.24 million.
The other Golden Globe Best Picture winner, for Drama, was A24’s Moonlight, which expanded into 447 more theaters and cracked the million-dollar weekend mark for the first time since late November with an estimated $1.10 million. Weinstein Company’s Lion earned an estimated $2.25 million. And Paramount’s Martin Scorsese-directed Silence expanded from 51 to 747 theaters, earning an estimated $1.94 million.
Despite its fading from the domestic box office with a 10th place finish, the top film at the overseas box office was Sony’s Passengers with an estimated $32.5 million weekend, up 7.9 percent, in 65 markets. The spike was led by its $17.5 million debut in China. The film has now earned a $147.1 million overseas and $237.1 million global total.
Similarly, although it’s fading fast from the domestic box office with an estimated 18th place finish, Fox’s Assassin’s Creed came in second place overseas with an estimated $23.1 million overseas weekend, down 50.4 percent, in 71 markets. The film has now earned a $132.4 million overseas and $185.5 million global total. Notable grosses to date include $14.1 million in France and $13.7 million in Russia.
Rogue One came close to crossing the billion-dollar global mark this weekend, with an estimated $21.9 million overseas weekend, down 61.3 percent, in 53 markets. The film has now earned a $481.1 million overseas and $980.0 million global total. Notable grosses to date include $77.5 million in the United Kingdom, $53.4 million in China, $43.6 million in Germany, $35.3 million in Japan, $35.0 million in France, and $34.3 million in Australia.
3-Day Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, January 13 – Sunday, January 15, 2017:
|2||La La Land||$14,500,000||43%||1,848||333||$7,846||$74,081,569||6||Lionsgate / Summit|
|4||Rogue One: A Star Wars Story||$13,759,000||-38%||3,162||-995||$4,351||$498,850,734||5||Disney|
|5||The Bye Bye Man||$13,378,000||—||2,220||—||$6,026||$13,378,000||1||STX Entertainment|
|6||Patriots Day||$12,000,000||11350%||3,120||3113||$3,846||$12,924,082||4||CBS Films / Lionsgate|
|9||Underworld: Blood Wars||$5,815,000||-58%||3,070||0||$1,894||$23,931,118||2||Sony / Screen Gems|
|10||Passengers||$5,625,000||-36%||2,447||-953||$2,299||$90,004,731||4||Sony / Columbia|
|11||Live By Night||$5,425,000||20051%||2,822||2818||$1,922||$5,610,644||4||Warner Bros.|
|15||A Monster Calls||$521,845||-75%||1,513||-10||$345||$3,345,473||4||Focus|
|3||Manchester By the Sea||$1,744,650||-31%||726||-331||$2,403||$36,906,428||9||Roadside / Amazon|
|8||Trolls||$385,000||-13%||262||-70||$1,469||$151,787,691||11||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|9||Elle (2016)||$314,471||539%||209||173||$1,505||$1,378,829||10||Sony Pictures Classics|
|13||Office Christmas Party||$125,000||-84%||141||-812||$887||$54,608,067||6||Paramount / DreamWorks|
|1||20th Century Women||$307,571||136%||29||19||$10,606||$751,219||3||A24|
|2||Julieta||$132,345||40%||29||12||$4,564||$516,158||4||Sony Pictures Classics|
|4||The Eagle Huntress||$92,393||-19%||82||-12||$1,127||$2,609,949||11||Sony Pictures Classics|
|6||Toni Erdmann||$40,966||30%||5||2||$8,193||$216,816||4||Sony Pictures Classics|
|9||Worlds Apart||$14,000||—||1||—||$14,000||$14,000||1||Cinema Libre Studio|