As Thanksgiving weekend approaches, theaters stay hopeful that this year’s slate of openers will be the first since 2019 to bring some robust energy to the box office.
Napoleon
Sony Pictures & Apple
November 22, 2023 (WIDE)
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $17M-$23M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $23M-$34M
PROS:
- A high-profile cast led by Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby, a well-known historical subject, and a premium screen footprint—plus a potential boost from director Ridley Scott’s fan base— could drive adult moviegoers to the cinema over the holiday frame.
- Pre-sales currently register 15 percent ahead of Killers of the Flower Moon at the same point before the start of previews and double those of The Creator.
CONS:
- Critics’ reviews are hovering around a fresh-but-modest 68 percent approval rating from 105 critics on Rotten Tomatoes as of Tuesday morning.
- Adult-driven films continue to be more volatile to project, as audiences over the age of 35 have become more selective and focused on a number of variables such as quality, run time, and the expectation of streaming availability versus an urgency to see in theaters.
Wish
Disney
November 22, 2023 (WIDE)
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$44M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $49M-$66M
PROS:
- Disney’s appeal to multiple generations of mothers and daughters could be on display again with the studio’s return to a fairy tale-like template that has proven successful many times in recent years and decades of yore. That’s especially true for many of their Thanksgiving releases.
- Tuesday previews are trending 77 percent ahead of Trolls Band Together and more than double Encanto in pre-sales across key sample markets as of this writing.
CONS:
- Wish‘s critic approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes stands at a lukewarm 49 percent from 81 reviews as of Tuesday morning.
- Disney’s streaming-focused strategies during the pandemic severely disrupted their particular audience’s expectations of content availability and eroded some of the studio’s brand. Conversely, other animation studios have shown that big screen, blockbuster success on the animated canvas is still very achievable in the current market.
Current projection ranges call for a 33% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $89.7 million in 2022 and a 37% decrease from 2019’s $190.2 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 26 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd | 5-Day Weekend Forecast |
| Wish | Disney | $37,000,000 | $56,300,000 | ~3,700 | NEW | $56,300,000 |
| Napoleon | Sony Pictures & Apple | $20,900,000 | $32,500,000 | ~3,300 | NEW | $32,500,000 |
| The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes | Lionsgate | $20,500,000 | $82,400,000 | ~3,776 | -54% | $29,800,000 |
| Trolls Band Together | Universal Pictures | $18,200,000 | $64,200,000 | ~3,870 | -39% | $26,500,000 |
| Thanksgiving | Sony Pictures & TriStar | $7,000,000 | $22,900,000 | ~3,204 | -32% | $10,000,000 |
| The Marvels | Disney & Marvel Studios | $6,800,000 | $77,000,000 | ~3,800 | -33% | $9,500,000 |
| Saltburn | Amazon Studios | $3,600,000 | $5,400,000 | ~1,500 | +1027% | $5,000,000 |
| The Holdovers | Focus Features | $2,200,000 | $12,100,000 | ~1,500 | -18% | $3,000,000 |
| Five Nights at Freddy’s | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $1,900,000 | $136,200,000 | ~1,800 | -47% | $2,700,000 |
| Next Goal Wins | Disney & Searchlight Pictures | $1,500,000 | $5,200,000 | ~2,240 | -40% | $2,100,000 |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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