Long Range Box Office Forecast: THE FALL GUY

© Universal Studios. All Rights Reserved. Photo by Eric Laciste/Universal Pictures

Summer movie season kicks off this year not with a Marvel movie, but with Universal’s action/comedy The Fall Guy—with star Ryan Gosling hoping to channel some of his Kenergy into his newest release.

The Fall Guy

Universal Pictures

May 3, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $20M-$40M
Domestic Total Range: $75M-$125M


  • Star co-Ryan Gosling is riding a wave of popularity as a result of Barbie, its press tour, and his subsequent performance “I’m Just Ken” at the Oscars. Gosling also presented an award with his The Fall Guy co-star Emily Blunt, nominated for Oppenheimer; their banter could prove a draw to The Fall Guy among those who watched the ceremony or saw their clip later online.
  • The romance element to The Fall Guy could be a draw for female audiences, coming on the heels of a wave of largely male-skewing actioners (Godzilla X Kong: A New Empire, Monkey Man) to have his theaters in the weeks immediately preceding.
  • Director David Leitch has experience with the action/comedy romp, having directed 2022’s Bullet Train (domestic opening: $30M)—like The Fall Guy, based on a property without a particularly large profile—as well as franchise installments Deadpool 2 (domestic opening: $125.5M) and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw (domestic opening: $60M).


  • While not technically a piece of original IP, the source material The Fall Guy is based on–an ’80s TV show starring Lee Majors–is widely unknown to the public at large, so name recognition won’t be a factor in bumping up the film adaptation’s profile.
  • Barring the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, for the last few years summer movie season kicked off in late April or early May with the release of an entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (domestic opening: $118.4M) last year, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (domestic opening: $187.4M) in 2022, Avengers: Endgame (domestic opening: $357.1M) in 2019 and Avengers: Infinity War (domestic opening: $257.6M) in 2018. With the lack of a built-in fanbase and years of worldbuilding, The Fall Guy lacks the juice to match even the more moderate opening numbers of the post-Endgame early summer releases.

© Universal Studios. All Rights Reserved. Photo by Eric Laciste/Universal Pictures

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