Long Range Box Office Forecast: Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre (Updated)

Friday Evening Update: STXfilms announced late Friday that Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre has been removed from the release schedule and is now “unset.” All forecasts for the film previously listed in the chart below should be ignored at this time.

Original Report: This week’s report takes an early look at how director Guy Ritchie’s latest ensemble film is tracking in the weeks leading up to a planned March 18 release in domestic theaters.

That same weekend is also slated for the release of Focus Features’ The Outfit and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy, but we are not currently providing forecasts on either.

Up-to-date forecast ranges for wide releases through mid-March are available in the chart below.

Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre
STXfilms
March 18

PROS:

• Guy Ritchie’s fan base has proven consistent in recent years with the relatively successful runs of The Gentlemen and Wrath of Man, both of which returned to the filmmaker’s genre roots in many ways.
  
  The former bowed to $10.65 million in January 2020 before legging out to $36.5 million stateside, even with the pandemic cutting short the back end of its run. Wrath of Man, meanwhile, performed similarly with an $8.3 million / $27.5 million split last May just as major market theaters were reopening and vaccines were in the nascent weeks of wide distribution.

• Male-driven thrillers have been workhorses during the pandemic recovery era for theater owners. The older portion of that demographic will be a focal point here, and the added comedic aspect should help it appeal to fans of The Gentlemen.

• Although marketing has yet to fully hit its stride, its trailer release and early tracking are encouraging. A lack of direct competition, beyond opening two weeks later than The Batman, should also aid what is expected to be a theatrically exclusive run.

CONS:

• The aforementioned proximity of The Batman shouldn’t be discounted entirely as that film will still be going strong in its third frame should reception and word of mouth deliver. The Lost City also opens one week later, which could moderately cut into the target audience here.

• As a fairly niche genre project from Ritchie, and another modest budget to match, expectations should be moderated and focused beyond opening weekend performance.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/18/22)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.