Long Range Box Office Forecast: 11 Intriguing Post-Summer Films Previewed at CinemaCon

Photo Credits: Sony / TriStar ("The Woman King"); Warner Bros. ("Don't Worry Darling"); 20th Century Studios ("Amsterdam"); Universal ("M3GAN")

Ordinarily, this report highlights early box office tracking for a new film four weeks out from release. With no major wide releases on the calendar for June 3, though, this week presents an opportunity to take an early look beyond summer.

In late April, studios gathered at CinemaCon to showcase their upcoming slates through the end of 2022 (and a few brief glimpses at 2023 titles). The usual tentpole suspects were on hand and often the focus, but much of the discussion surrounding pandemic market recovery over the past year has also centered around the return of moviegoers for so-called “low-to-mid profile” movies.

As such, this week’s long range report temporarily breaks from tradition and spotlights eleven non-tentpole films previewed at the industry convention that are worth watching for upon their respective post-summer 2022 and early 2023 launches.

Release dates are in flux, of course, as studios are likely to shift some of these films before release. At first glance, though, each one stood out for its own content merits.

Meanwhile, the most current tracking ranges for upcoming releases like Firestarter, Downton Abbey: A New Era, Top Gun: Maverick, and Bob’s Burgers are in the chart below. Regular tracking reports resume next week with an outlook for June 10’s Jurassic World Dominion.

On with the list:

Salem’s Lot
Warner Bros. Pictures
September 9, 2022

The latest adaptation of a classic Stephen King story lands at what’s been a lucrative time on the calendar for Warner Bros. and horror films in September. The trailer drew largely positive responses and should appeal to fans of the recent It films. Like that two-parter, this is the first time Salem’s Lot has been adapted for a theatrical film.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Lionsgate
September 16, 2022

Another adaptation of a beloved novel, Margaret looks to appeal strongly to women of all ages with star Rachel McAdams anchoring the classic Judy Blume story. As the return of adult women to cinemas during the late stages of pandemic continues to progress, this film could be well-positioned with its fall release and plenty of built-in fan appeal.

The Woman King
Sony / TriStar Pictures
September 16, 2022

The first trailer drew significant buzz from CinemaCon attendees, and anticipation for Viola Davis’ performance is a major part of that. The film’s historical action slant may drive diverse mainstream appeal, especially if the film is able to garner any kind of award season buzz.

Don’t Worry Darling
Warner Bros. Pictures
September 23, 2022

Olivia Wilde’s directorial follow-up to Booksmart presents a mysterious drama/thriller led by Florence Pugh, Harry Styles, and Chris Pine. This will certainly be an adult-targeted film, one which also might benefit from award season proximity if reception is strong.

Bros
Universal Pictures
September 30, 2022

Billy Eichner leads what is proclaimed to the first all-LGBTQ+ main and supporting cast in a Hollywood feature. Directed by Nicholas Stoller (Neighbors, Forgetting Sarah Marshall), the film’s first trailer offers plenty of raunchy comedy and a character-driven story at the heart of a film that could stand out this fall.

Ticket to Paradise
Universal Pictures
October 21, 2022

George Clooney and Julia Roberts reunite from their Ocean’s Eleven days in this romantic comedy about a divorced couple on a trip with their daughter. Early footage evoked the kind of classic mainstream appeal both actors have mastered throughout their careers, making this yet another comedy worth keeping on the radar.

Amsterdam
20th Century Studios
November 4, 2022

Revealing its title for the first time at CinemaCon, director David O. Russell’s (Silver Living Playbook, American Hustle) next project features Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, Anya Taylor-Joy, John David Washington, and Robert De Niro in an ensemble period comedy-mystery-drama. It’s easy to imagine this garnering both commercial appeal and award season attention with the cast and talent involved and its release close to the holidays.

Violent Night
Universal Pictures
December 2, 2022

There’s no shortage of Christmas movies, but this one has the makings of a new cult classic based on the early trailer shown at CinemaCon. Led by David Harbour (Stranger Things), the latest R-rated take on the holiday should appeal strongly to fans of films like Nobody and the John Wick franchise.

Babylon
Paramount Pictures
January 6, 2023 (Wide)

Another auteur filmmaker’s next project was highlighted with a trailer for Damien Chazelle’s (La La Land, Whiplash) latest. The period film is led by an ensemble cast anchored by Brad Pitt, Olivia Wilde, and Margot Robbie and will release during the holidays for award consideration before going nationwide in January 2023. The movie appears Hollywood-centric in its subject matter and locales, so it’ll be intriguing to see how much mainstream attention its premise and cast can generate among the masses.

M3GAN
Universal Pictures
January 13, 2023

Blumhouse returns with another original horror film co-written by James Wan (Insidious, The Conjuring) and starring Allison Williams (Get Out). This is another spot on the calendar that’s been healthy for mid-to-low profile horror films in recent years, and the first look provided what can be described as a modern take on artificial intelligence and childhood dolls. Think Child’s Play, for a new generation.

Heart of a Lion
Sony / AFFIRM Films
April 7, 2023

This biopic about legendary boxer George Foreman, featuring Forest Whitaker, is nearly a year away. Still, first footage suggests Sony and AFFIRM could have a widely appealing, faith-based inspirational film on their hands with the intriguing story of a sporting icon at its heart. Opening over Easter weekend could be a lucrative play.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 5/5/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/13/2022 Firestarter $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 -6% $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 -5% 3,300 Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era $16,000,000 – $21,000,000   $45,000,000 – $65,000,000   3,100 Focus Features
5/20/2022 Men         n/a A24
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $14,000,000 – $30,000,000     Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun: Maverick $95,000,000 – $125,000,000   $255,000,000 – $375,000,000     Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Watcher           IFC Films

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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