The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 26 – 28, 2025
Week 39 | September 26 – 28, 2025
1. One Battle After Another
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend Range: $18M – $23M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Warner Bros. is capping off a banner 2025 with the final new wide release in its slate, One Battle After Another, a genre-bending epic from director Paul Thomas Anderson. This could be the first time in writer/director P.T. Anderson’s three-decade career that one of his films tops the box office, with a strong likelihood of becoming the filmmaker’s most commercial film to date. Battle will take advantage of an otherwise quiet weekend and a clear runway on the PLF front, leading all other releases with a 13% showtime market share that features multiple large-format and premium screenings.
- Leonardo DiCaprio’s star power should help lift the film’s grosses slightly, as well as Warner Bros.’ positioning the film as a comedy in some TV spots. Strong reviews are poised to propel the film into an awards contender, extending its legs at the box office in the weeks to come. A 97% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes is already an indication of the film’s awards potential. No one is expecting blockbuster numbers from a P.T. Anderson picture, whose highest-grossing film remains 2007’s There Will Be Blood ($40M), and the film shouldn’t be judged on that basis. An $18M+ would be a welcome showing for 2025’s first Oscars frontrunner.
Cons
- It appears that Warner Bros. will likely break its historic streak of consecutive $40M+ opening weekends, but that was never on the table for a prestige play such as this. Despite the awards buzz and DiCaprio’s star power, exhibitors should adjust their expectations when it comes to a title with ambitions beyond box office alone.
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Universal Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – $20M
Showtime Marketshare: 12%
Pros
- Debuting on Netflix in early 2021, Gabby’s Dollhouse is the colorful animated/live-action hybrid series created by Traci Paige Johnson and Jennifer Twomey (Blue’s Clues) for DreamWorks Animation. After 76 episodes, the series (core audience age 2-7) comes to the big screen as Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie, featuring the show’s 17-year-old star Laila Lockhart Kraner alongside some familiar comedy faces parents might recognize (Thomas Lennon, Jason Mantzoukas, Kyle Mooney). Bridesmaids star Kristen Wiig gets plenty of play in the trailers as the weird cat lady antagonist Vera, but the tiny, adorable denizens of the title dollhouse are the real draws. Although the audience for this seems limited, let’s not forget how huge Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters was—with arguably the same female kid demo—over its two-day theatrical play.
Cons
- Gabby’s Dollhouse pre-sales just aren’t giving us enough confidence for a strong opening weekend. Our panel is expecting something lower than DreamWorks’ summer underperformer The Bad Guys 2 ($21.99M opening/$80.34M domestic total). However, it still has an outside shot at taking #1 if it can surge in family-friendly markets where One Battle After Another is expected to lose some of the ground it will gain in urban areas. If PTA’s movie is an art house film on steroids, then Gabby’s Dollhouse is a kiddie streaming series writ large, thus will play mainly to the kid/parent quadrants across the estimated 3500 screens. Theaters are already gearing up for the merch bonanza, including Regal with its Gabby soda toppers, light up headbands, and plushies.
Third Place Toss Up
3. The Strangers: Chapter 2
Lionsgate | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 10%
Pros
- Lurking in the shadows is The Strangers Chapter 2, currently on pace for a high-single-digit debut. We expect a slide from The Strangers: Chapter 1‘s $11.8M debut last summer, but it should still appeal to the horror fanbase. We do not expect it to directly compete with Universal’s HIM after that Jordan Peele-produced movie’s lackluster CinemaScore and reviews. Chapter 1 did decent enough at $35.2M domestic and $47.4M WW, which was director Renny Harlin’s best performer since 2004’s Exorcist: The Beginning. It was also better than previous installment The Strangers: Prey at Night ($24.4M domestic/$32.1M WW).
Cons
- Unlike The Strangers: Chapter 1, which was a fairly-contained bottle location movie like the others in the series, Chapter 2 plays much more like a sprawling survival horror movie with lead Madelaine Petsch trying to evade the franchise’s masked killers. This change in tone might be a bridge too far for audiences who have come to expect more psychological suspense-driven thrills from this franchise. The general reaction to the last film (21% RT critical, 45% audience score, “C” CinemaScore) may have also scorched the earth for the sequel… plus there’s still a third one in the can for next year.
3. Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle
Sony | Week 3
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 7%
Pros
- At a current $106.29M domestic and $556.5M globally, Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle is a worldwide success story and yet another disruptor changing the box office landscape this year. This is an audience that Sony and Crunchyroll carefully cultivated over previous US releases, then very strategically took advantage of a September release schedule barren of major tentpoles. No matter what it does this frame its mark has been made, loud and clear. And don’t forget, this is the first of a trilogy, with two more on the way from Toho.
Cons
- While it may have scored two #1 showings in a row, Sony’s release of anime phenomenon Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle is not exactly “the people’s champion.” Dropping -75% in Frame 2 demonstrated how fan-driven the first week’s over-performance was. It may keep third if it can avoid another big drop on Frame 3… even if that momentum is steadily evaporating.
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