Long Range Forecast — January 9, 2026
Primate | Paramount
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $5M – $10M
It’s man vs. nature in Primate, a January horror title from director Johannes Roberts (the 47 Meters Down movies, Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City, The Strangers: Prey at Night) in which a family’s pet chimpanzee goes berserk after being bitten by a rabid animal. The Paramount release will help round out the market—which, in the first week of January, will still be dominated by holiday season holdovers—but will likely only appear to core genre fans.
Among early January horror titles released in the last decade, the high water mark belongs Universal’s M3GAN, which opened to $30.4M in 2023 en route to a $95.1M domestic haul; Paramount’s Scream, released by Paramount in 2022, is close behind with a $30M opening and a total domestic run of $81.6M. Lacking either a buzzy marketing campaign or the name recognition that comes with being part of an established horror franchise, Primate is expected to open much lower. An opening on the higher end of our $5M – $10M range would put it alongside killer doll movie The Boy ($10.7M domestic opening) from 2016. Positive word-of-mouth among horror-loving moviegoers could nudge its opening weekend upward by a few million, where it would join fellow original-IP January horror releases Night Swim ($11.7M), The Forest ($12.7M), The Bye Bye Man ($13.5M), or—on the higher side—2019’s Escape Room ($18.2M).
Greenland 2: Migration | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $20M
The January film slate wouldn’t feel complete without one—or several—mid-budget action thrillers. The first to hit screens in 2026 is the Gerard Butler-starring Greenland 2: Migration, a sequel to one of the films released in the 2020 pandemic market. The first Greenland didn’t get a theatrical release in North America, so adult-skewing action thrillers like 2023’s Plane ($10.2M domestic opening), 2018’s Den of Thieves ($15.2M), and 2025’s Den of Thieves: Pantera ($15M)—all January releases starring Butler, with Lionsgate distributing Plane and Pantera—will have to serve as comps. Other January Dad movies from recent years include Lionsgate’s Flight Risk ($11.5M), starring Mark Wahlberg, and The Commuter ($13.7M), starring Liam Neeson, along with Amazon/MGM’s The Beekeeper ($16.5M), starring Jason Statham.
Tracking Updates [As Of 12/05/25]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 12/12 | Ella McCay | $3M – $5M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
| 12/12 | Hamnet (Expansion) | $3M – $5M | Focus Features / Universal |
| 12/19 | David | $15M – $20M | Angel Studios |
| 12/19 | The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants | $25M – $35M | Paramount |
| 12/19 | The Housemaid | $25M – $35M | Lionsgate |
| 12/19 | Avatar: Fire and Ash | $100M – $120M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
| 12/25 | Anaconda | $20M – $30M | Sony |
| 12/25 | Marty Supreme | $8M – $12M | A24 |
| 12/25 | Song Sung Blue | $10M – $15M | Focus Features |
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