Opening Weekend Forecast: £7M – £10M
Theatrical Total Forecast: £30M – £35M
Cinema advertising company Pearl & Dean has released their predicted opening range for the live-action version of Disney’s Moana, opening in the U.K. and Ireland this weekend.
Since Disney began remaking its classic animated films with 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (£42.6 million), the studio has delivered some of the 21st century’s highest-grossing titles. Beauty and the Beast waltzed to £72.5 million in 2017, while The Lion King roared up £76 million in 2019. Yet the House of Mouse has also seen softer returns, notably from Dumbo (£25 million) in 2019 and The Little Mermaid (£27.4 million) in 2023, while last year’s Snow White proved a major misfire with £11.7 million. We expect Moana to land between these two poles with an above-average haul that nonetheless falls short of Disney’s biggest hits.
The original Moana (£20 million) remains one of Disney’s most beloved modern animations and has spent several years as the most-streamed movie in the world. Its 2024 sequel sailed well beyond the original’s box office, reaching £42.7 million and becoming Dwayne Johnson’s highest-grossing film in the U.K. and Ireland. Even so, this marks the first time Disney has remade one of its animated properties into live-action so quickly after the source material’s release, and some cinemagoers may feel the voyage has come a little too soon.
On the other hand, DreamWorks’ near frame-by-frame remake of How To Train Your Dragon grossed £23 million in 2025, comfortably ahead of its animated predecessor’s £17.5 million in 2010. This performance suggests there is an audience for these faster live-action turnarounds, and with Moana carrying such strong goodwill, many families should be ready to set sail once again.
Competition will be choppy, as Disney must navigate its own juggernaut in Toy Story 5, which opened to £15.4 million and posted a respectable 40% second week drop. As a result, we forecast the film to finish in the £30–£35 million range, placing it just behind May 2025’s Lilo & Stitch, which faced less competition than Moana and went on to gross £37.6 million.
Comparators: The Little Mermaid (£27.4 million), Lilo and Stitch (£37.6 million), Moana (£20 million), How To Train Your Dragon (£23 million), Moana 2 (£42.7 million).
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