The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 10 – 12, 2026
Week 28 | July 10 – 12, 2026
1. Moana
Disney | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Showtime Market Share: 23%
Pros
- After an underwhelming July 4 holiday, we have another big tentpole struggling to show the sort of traction its predecessors in the franchise did. The 2016 animated original opened at $56.6M, while Moana 2 bowed with $139.78M. Fortunately, Moana’s slide should be somewhat cushioned by the new Evil Dead title, and together they will help drive another $100M+ weekend for the summer box office ahead of The Odyssey’s debut next weekend. Dwayne Johnson returning as his character Maui in the flesh lends muscle to the new Moana, though The Rock hasn’t had an outright smash hit since Jumanji: The Next Level pre-pandemic.
Cons
- Unlike last year’s hit redo of Lilo & Stitch, the live-action Moana‘s lack of momentum is likely due to oversaturation, with the original animated version having opened only a decade ago and the sequel 20 months ago. Critical buzz is coming in low at 33% so far on Rotten Tomatoes, combined with an already glutted family market with both Toy Story and Minions in the mix. We’re looking at an opening weekend around $50M, though our forecasting numbers are varied, with some executives reporting an opening weekend as low as $40M while others see a debut closer to the $60M range. This should keep exhibitors in family-centric markets happy, but we are not expecting an all-out hit with this one.
2. Evil Dead Burn
Warner Bros. | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- Sam Raimi’s original Evil Dead trilogy was a cult entity rather than a box office force, but the recent Bruce Campbell-less reboot entries have played it more youth/gore-skewing and less tongue-in-cheek. That has paid off at the box office, with the 2013 Evil Dead rewarded with a $25.77M opening/$54.2M domestic lifetime while Evil Dead Rise opened to $24.5M and a $67.35M total. We’re expecting an opening weekend along that $25 million baseline.
Cons
- We expect another solid result from this horror franchise since relaunching as an anthology series. No, it’s not Conjuring numbers—but they don’t have to be. The movie’s scheduling purposely has it as a genre counter-programmer to add diversity to the slate. Still, this year has favored original genre fare (Backrooms, Obsession) over IP (28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, Lee Cronin’s The Mummy), so it will be interesting to see how Evil Dead fares in this current environment.
3. Minions & Monsters
Universal/Illumination | Week 2
Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Market Share: 15%
Pros
- Universal and Illumination’s Minions & Monsters has #1 movie momentum and a decent “A-” CinemaScore/89% RT critical going into its sophomore weekend. Even with a solid hold under -50%, that ultra-soft $37M bow will be hard to recover from, though most handicappers suggest that, like Pixar’s Cars franchise before it, light box office will not hurt robust toy sales, which is more than half the pie when it comes to franchises like these.
Cons
- Among the most disappointing opening weekends of the year, Minions nearly got upset on its debut by Frame 3 of Toy Story 5. Going up against Moana won’t help. Overseas numbers are doing fine at $100M and counting, but domestic moviegoers have decidedly moved on from the gentle minions. The Despicable Me franchise had been one of the steadiest/most reliable in Hollywood prior to this opening, but a family-saturated market and general malaise regarding sequels right now have put a dent in one of Universal’s crown jewels.
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