This week’s report takes an early look at a trio of titles slated for release over Valentine’s Day weekend. Notable is the fact that the date night holiday lands on a Thursday this year, so studios are taking varied approaches with mid-week releases in lieu of traditional Friday openings. Presidents’ Day will also follow that Monday.
Isn’t It Romantic
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million (Friday through Sunday)
PROS:
- Rebel Wilson’s starring presence should aid appeal to fans of her previous work, particularly the Pitch Perfect franchise.
- This film’s time-loop plot device calls back on a variety of successful films like Groundhog’s Day and Happy Death Day. The romantic comedy aspect will naturally appeal to date night audiences this time of year.
CONS:
- With a slew of holiday releases on the minds of moviegoers right now, it’s possible the film’s interest and awareness levels won’t truly pop until after the new year. That said, competing with the teen-driven Happy Death Day 2U will be a minor challenge.
Alita: Battle Angel
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 20 million (Friday through Sunday)
PROS:
- Fans of the graphic novel have long anticipated a big screen version of the series.
- Producer James Cameron and director Robert Rodriguez’s credentials should only add to the enthusiasm of genre fans.
- A long lead time in marketing, due partly to multiple release delays, means awareness shouldn’t be a major concern.
CONS:
- Following the under-performance of films like Ghost In the Shell and Valerian, we’re cautious in expectations for this title given the strong potential of niche appeal.
- Early social trends are mixed.
Happy Death Day 2U
Opening Weekend Range: $19 – 26 million (Friday through Sunday)
PROS:
- The first film was yet another micro-budget hit for Blumhouse, whose name alone has become synonymous with quality horror films — especially those targeting teen and young adult audiences. Not unrelated, the horror genre has been on fire at the box office in recent years.
- Horror titles are popular choices for date night crowds, making the Valentine’s release a smart move. The added comedic angle offers a fresh take as well.
CONS:
- At this time, there’s little to be concerned about with what should be a fairly review-proof sequel aiming for a built-in audience.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 12/25/2018 | Holmes & Watson | $12,000,000 | $65,000,000 | 2,719 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 12/25/2018 | Vice | $9,000,000 | $60,000,000 | -8% | 2,378 | Annapurna | |
| 1/4/2019 | Eli (2019) | n/a | n/a | n/a | Paramount | ||
| 1/4/2019 | Escape Room | $13,000,000 | $32,000,000 | 2,750 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/11/2019 | A Dog’s Way Home | $12,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 1/11/2019 | Perfect Strangers | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Pantelion Films | |||
| 1/11/2019 | Replicas | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | |||
| 1/11/2019 | The Upside | $13,000,000 | $39,000,000 | STX | |||
| 1/18/2019 | Glass | $67,000,000 | $180,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 1/25/2019 | The Kid Who Would Be King | $15,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 1/25/2019 | Serenity (2019) | $10,000,000 | $30,000,000 | Aviron | |||
| 1/25/2019 | Untitled STX Action/Thriller | n/a | n/a | STX Entertainment | |||
| 2/1/2019 | Jacob’s Ladder | n/a | n/a | LD Entertainment | |||
| 2/1/2019 | Miss Bala | $10,000,000 | $28,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 2/8/2019 | Cold Pursuit | $13,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 2/8/2019 | The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | $60,000,000 | $213,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 2/8/2019 | The Prodigy | n/a | n/a | Orion Pictures | |||
| 2/8/2019 | What Men Want | $25,000,000 | $63,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 2/13/2019 | Isn’t It Romantic | $14,000,000 | NEW | $54,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. | |
| 2/14/2019 | Alita: Battle Angel | $14,500,000 | NEW | $41,000,000 | NEW | Fox | |
| 2/14/2019 | Fighting with My Family | n/a | n/a | MGM | |||
| 2/14/2019 | Happy Death Day 2U | $24,000,000 | NEW | $52,000,000 | NEW | Universal |
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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