Early Weekend Estimates: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE Claws Closer to $200M+ Domestic Debut

(L-R): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool/Wade Wilson and Hugh Jackman as Wolverine/Logan in 20th Century Studios/Marvel Studios' DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE. Photo by Jay Maidment. © 2024 20th Century Studios / © and ™ 2024 MARVEL.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Deadpool & Wolverine is on track to becoming the first $200M+ opening weekend for an R-rated title. A $96M domestic opening day (including $38.5M from previews) puts this title opening on the high end of our pre-release $180 – $200M forecast, with Disney projecting an opening weekend as high as $205M.

Overseas, the film is playing in 51 material markets and has already reached an international total of $115.1M. Top territories outside of the North American market, provided by Disney, are included below:

TerritoriesGBO
UK$11.4M
Mexico$9.9M
China$8.3M
Australia$5.9M
France$5.4M
Germany$5.1M
Brazil$5.0M
Italy$4.7M
Korea$4.0M
Spain$3.9M
Other$51.5M
Total$115.1M

FRIDAY: The Marvel Cinematic Universe just found the catalyst it sorely needed to reconnect with mass audiences. Deadpool & Wolverine kicked off its theatrical run with an impressive $38.5M in Thursday previews, making it the 8th-highest preview frame and the biggest preview number of all-time for an R-rated film. The film will officially open across 4,210 theaters this weekend, including 400 IMAX auditoriums, 950+ Premium Large Format screens, 2,500+ 3D locations, 300+ D-Box/4D motion screens and 90+ Screen X screens. The film occupies a market share of 43% of all showtimes in the United States, according to The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard.

The preview performance ranks it nearly on par with 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($40M previews / $177.4M opening weekend) and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($39M previews / $257.7M opening weekend).

It is currently outpacing post-pandemic Marvel hits like 2022’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36M previews / $187.4M opening weekend) and Thor: Love & Thunder ($29M previews / $144.2M opening weekend), and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($28M previews / $181.3M opening weekend).

Based on the preview figures alone, Deadpool & Wolverine is tracking in line with our pre-release projection range of $180-$200M. The film is virtually guaranteed to beat the prior opening weekends in the Deadpool franchise en route to becoming the biggest R-rated opening weekend of all-time. Deadpool 2 posted previews of $18.6M ($125.5M opening weekend) in 2016, while 2014’s original Deadpool earned $12.7M in previews and set an R-rated opening weekend record of $132.4M.

Overseas, the film has already opened across a total of 48 material markets to date. The first two days of the international launch have contributed $64.8M to the global tally, tracking +57% ahead of Deadpool and +48% ahead of Deadpool 2 in the same markets at current exchange rates, according to Disney.

In Latin America, the film posted the second-highest opening day of 2024 in key territories Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. European highlights include the second-highest openind day of the year in the UK and Italy, while taking first place in the same category in Spain and Germany. Audience scores are high in both France and Germany, with Webedia’s Allocine reporting a 3.9 in France and Germany’s Moviepilot posting a 7.5. rating from moviegoers.

Asia Pacific reports the highest opening day of the year in Australia, with additional strong performances in South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Indonesia, and Hong Kong. The film will open in China today (Friday), with early estimates suggesting a $8.5M haul from the market.

Top overseas markets for Deadpool & Wolverine are included in the chart below.

Top Overseas TerritoriesGBO
Mexico$6.6M
UK$6.0M
France$3.6M
Italy$3.5M
Australia$3.4M
Brazil$3.3M
Germany$3.2M
Korea$2.7M
Spain$2.3M
Japan$1.9M
Other$28.3M
Total$64.8M

(L-R): Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool/Wade Wilson and Hugh Jackman as Wolverine/Logan in 20th Century Studios/Marvel Studios' DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE. Photo by Jay Maidment. © 2024 20th Century Studios / © and ™ 2024 MARVEL.

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