Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Finding Dory’ ($77M) Laps More Records; ‘Independence Day: Resurgence’ Misfires ($45M); ‘The Shallows’ Surprises ($17M)

Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Finding Dory added another $23.2 million to its haul on Friday, easily holding onto first place at the start of its second weekend. Down just 58 percent from last Friday, the week-to-week hold was in line with past Pixar performances and brings its eight-day domestic total to $236.53 million — the most of any animated title in history through this point in release. It’s current pacing a staggering 27.5 percent ahead of Toy Story 3 ($185.5 million) through eight days of play.

Yesterday’s number for the latest Pixar blockbuster should lead to a sophomore frame somewhere in the realm of a stellar $77 million, which would mean topping Shrek 2‘s $72.2 million as the best second frame ever posted by an animated film. Should it top $75.6 million, Dory would also best Avatar to become the fifth-highest second weekend earner of all-time.

Bowing in second place on Friday was Independence Day: Resurgence with an estimated $16.8 million. Unfortunately, that comes in below already modest expectations after Thursday night’s $4.0 million start and spells trouble domestically for the 20-years-in-the-making sequel. Its opening day came in over 7 percent less than San Andreas ($18.15 million), 17 percent under Mission: Impossible: Rogue Nation, and 39 percent shy of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($27.65 million). While the potential exists for some backloading to next week thanks to the calendar alignment of Independence Day itself, poor word of mouth (42 percent on Flixster) and reviews (34 percent from critics) may kill that notion. For opening weekend, we’re projecting a figure around $45 million. Overseas business will be crucial to helping the film’s all-around financial prospects at this point.

Meanwhile, Sony/Columbia’s The Shallows proved to be an even bigger sleeper hit than expected with an excellent opening day of $6.85 million. Despite a late release date change, Blake Lively’s fan base turned out for the shark thriller in solid numbers. The opening day came in 5 percent ahead of the Carrie remake’s $6.5 million back in October 2013. Shallows should come close to making back its $17 million production budget this weekend, which is precisely what we’re projecting for the opening weekend.

Meanwhile, Central Intelligence took fourth on Friday wth $5.65 million, giving it an eight-day total of $56.6 million and suggesting word of mouth will continue carrying it into July as it eyes an $18.2 million sophomore weekend. Rounding out the top five, Free State of Jones debuted to a disappointing $2.65 million yesterday. Unfortunately, the historical drama isn’t likely to generate a lot of staying power — despite its target older audience — with a poor 40 percent critics’ score and middling 68 percent Flixster score as of this morning. Look for a debut weekend around $7.5 million.

Unfortunately, opening day earnings for The Neon Demon had not yet been reported at the time of this story’s publishing.

Our complete early weekend estimates chart is below. Official weekend estimates from the studios will be published on Sunday morning.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Finding Dory $77,000,000 -43% 4,305 0 $17,886 $290,317,902 2 Disney
2 Independence Day: Resurgence $45,000,000 4,068 $11,062 $45,000,000 1 Fox
3 Central Intelligence $18,200,000 -49% 3,508 0 $5,188 $69,132,458 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
4 The Shallows $17,000,000 2,962 $5,739 $17,000,000 1 Sony / Columbia
5 Free State of Jones $7,500,000 2,815 $2,664 $7,500,000 1 STX Entertainment
6 The Conjuring 2 $7,200,000 -52% 3,033 -323 $2,374 $86,401,434 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
7 Now You See Me 2 $5,600,000 -40% 2,745 -487 $2,040 $52,004,214 3 Lionsgate / Summit
8 X-Men: Apocalypse $2,600,000 -51% 1,679 -953 $1,549 $151,251,991 5 Fox
9 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $2,400,000 -54% 1,947 -1139 $1,233 $77,117,555 4 Paramount
10 Warcraft $2,100,000 -71% 1,952 -1454 $1,076 $43,856,470 3 Universal
11 Me Before You $2,000,000 -49% 1,538 -1107 $1,300 $51,302,751 4 Warner Bros. / New Line

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Alice Through the Looking Glass $2,300,000 -46% 495 -1385 $4,646 $74,726,863 5 Disney
2 Captain America: Civil War $1,400,000 -40% 753 -681 $1,859 $403,888,730 8 Disney
3 The Jungle Book (2016) $1,250,000 -16% 478 -475 $2,615 $358,033,791 11 Disney
4 The Angry Birds Movie $470,000 -72% 443 -1578 $1,061 $104,949,793 6 Sony / Columbia
5 Zootopia $295,000 -69% 233 -72 $1,266 $340,384,142 17 Disney
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