Long Range Box Office Forecast: 65, Champions, and Scream VI

Photo Credits: Sony ("65"); Focus Features ("Champions"); Paramount ("Scream VI")

This week’s preliminary tracking report continues the look ahead into March with three wide releases on deck for March’s second frame.

65
Sony / Columbia
March 10, 2023

PROS:

  • Preliminary models are comparable to recent above-expectations action performers like Plane, with social metrics and trailer views in particular showcasing some potential for this Adam Driver-led sci-fi pic.

CONS:

  • Opening one week after Creed III may put a ceiling on the target male audience here, as will a cap on premium screen availability likely to be dominated by the Creed sequel, Scream VI, and eventually Shazam! Fury of the Gods and John Wick: Chapter 4 later in the month.

Champions
Focus Features
March 10, 2023

PROS:

  • Woody Harrelson provides a star name to help attract what could be a crossover of various demographics for this uplifting sports drama with potential crowd-pleasing appeal that may sprout long box office legs.

CONS:

  • In an increasingly busy early spring market, this title will need strong word of mouth and a full wide release to help it stand out alongside major studio releases.

Scream VI
Paramount
March 10, 2023

PROS:

  • Last year’s revival sequel helped reinvigorate interest in the franchise with an $81.6 million domestic run. This sixth film’s shift to a New York City setting, plus the cast addition of Jenna Ortega (Netflix’s Wednesday) and a returning Hayden Panettiere, aid in appeal and social buzz among younger fans of the series.

CONS:

  • Without the same nostalgic draw of the entire original cast, it remains to be seen whether or not the franchise can grow from the previous film’s leggy run or if there will be some diminished returns again. Notably, 58 percent of 2022’s Scream was over the age of 25.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/10/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
2/15/2023 Marlowe $1,000,000 – $3,000,000   $2,500,000 – $8,000,000   Open Road Films
2/17/2023 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $101,000,000 – $125,000,000   $249,000,000 – $331,000,000   Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023 Of An Age (Limited)         Focus Features
2/21/2023 Untitled Crunchyroll Film         Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023 Cocaine Bear $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $18,000,000 – $36,000,000   Universal Pictures
2/24/2023 Jesus Revolution $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $26,000,000 – $55,000,000   Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/24/2023 My Happy Ending         Roadside Attractions
2/24/2023 Mummies (Limited)         Warner Bros. Pictures
3/3/2023 Creed III $25,000,000 – $34,000,000   $71,000,000 – $98,000,000   MGM
3/3/2023 Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village         Crunchyroll / Sony
3/10/2023 65 $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $26,000,000 – $47,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023 Champions $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $14,000,000 – $44,000,000   Focus Features
3/10/2023 Scream VI $24,000,000 – $33,000,000   $54,000,000 – $80,000,000   Paramount Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: Sony ("65"); Focus Features ("Champions"); Paramount ("Scream VI")
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