This week’s report continues our look into early fall’s box office calendar, with preliminary outlooks for Kenneth Branagh’s third adaptation of an Agatha Christie/Hercule Poirot novel.
A Haunting in Venice
Disney / 20th Century Studios
September 15, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $11M-$16M
Domestic Total Range: $37M-$57M
PROS:
- The return of Branagh in front of and behind the camera is an enticing element for fans of 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express and 2022’s Death on the Nile, the latter of which earned a more encouraging 82 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes versus the former’s 54 percent.
- As with its two predecessors, Venice has an ensemble cast to lend some marketing power via star appeal. Venice could see a small expansion of its audience via this particular story’s apparent lean into the supernatural realm.
- Competition for the adult moviegoing audience Venice needs to appeal to is light in the immediate weeks before and after the film’s release, as films like The Equalizer 3, Expend4bles, and The Creator play mainly to action fans and male audiences.
CONS:
- Death on the Nile endured a sharp drop in overall returns after multiple delays caused by the pandemic, ultimately drawing a 56 percent lower domestic gross than Orient Express ($45.6 million versus $102.8 million). In fairness, Nile‘s release occurred just after the peak of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, before many adults resumed normal moviegoing habits.
- With The Nun II opening one week prior, any potential outreach to younger horror audiences could be somewhat limited.
- As the actors’ and writers’ strikes carry on, an absence by this film’s cast on the typical promotional tour that would occur next month could negatively impact marketing awareness among the target audience.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/17/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 8/25/2023 | Golda | Fathom Events | ||||
| 8/25/2023 | Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends) | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $61,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 8/25/2023 | The Hill | Briarcliff Entertainment | ||||
| 8/25/2023 | Retribution | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 9/1/2023 | The Equalizer 3 | $25,000,000 – $32,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $88,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 9/8/2023 | My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $24,000,000 – $43,000,000 | Focus Features | ||
| 9/8/2023 | The Nun II | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $97,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 9/15/2023 | A Haunting in Venice | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $57,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/15/2023 | Amerikatsi | Variance Films / Everest Films | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Camp Hideout | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY) | Sony Pictures / Columbia |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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