This week’s outlook moves ahead to mid-March with early forecasts for Lionsgate’s next release, plus updated ranges for other upcoming titles.
Arthur the King
Lionsgate
March 15, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $12M-$17M
Domestic Total Range: $36M-$68M
PROS:
- This film’s inspirational story could appeal to a variety of audiences, primarily dog-lovers and families who helped make 2022’s Dog a commercial hit. Competition is relatively minimal with only animated and fan-driven franchises providing the most audience crossover through most of spring.
- Star Mark Wahlberg has had fair success in family-driven box office hits, including the Daddy’s Home franchise and Instant Family. His presence in marketing could be key toward motivating patrons to see the film in theaters.
CONS:
- As is always a concern with dog-centric films, there will be increased sensitivity surrounding the fate of the star companion when it comes to general audiences and animal lovers. How the story is depicted on screen will be a major variable for word of mouth.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/15/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 2/23/2024 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $16,000,000 – $31,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll |
| 2/23/2024 | Drive-Away Dolls | $2,000,000 – $4,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $13,000,000 | Focus Features |
| 2/23/2024 | Ordinary Angels | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $33,000,000 | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company |
| 2/23/2024 | Tenet (2024 Re-Issue) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 2/29/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $6,000,000 – $13,500,000 | Angel Studios |
| 3/1/2024 | Dune: Part Two | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | $151,000,000 – $208,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/8/2024 | Accidental Texan | Roadside Attractions | ||
| 3/8/2024 | Cabrini | Angel Studios | ||
| 3/8/2024 | Imaginary | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $63,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| 3/8/2024 | Kung Fu Panda 4 | $30,000,000 – $39,000,000 | $103,000,000 – $142,000,000 | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation |
| 3/15/2024 | 1992 | Lionsgate | ||
| 3/15/2024 | Arthur The King | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $36,000,000 – $68,000,000 | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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