Long Range Box Office Forecast: Blumhouse’s NIGHT SWIM

© 2023 Universal Studios. All Rights Reserved. Photo by Anne Marie Fox/Universal Pictures

This week’s report takes a first glance into the new year, with Universal and Blumhouse hoping to kick 2024 off on a positive note with their latest original horror flick.

Night Swim

Universal Pictures

January 5, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $17M-$25M
Domestic Total Range: $38M-$65M


  • Universal and Blumhouse have an undeniably strong track record together, most recently with Five Nights at Freddy’s setting the latter studio’s opening weekend record. Night Swim, not accidentally, was a featured trailer in front of Freddy’s, bolstering its awareness profile among target audiences.
  • Strong appeal to young women and date night crowds is expected thanks to a PG-13 rating and Blumhouse’s popularity among those demographics.
  • Coming off a holiday season packed with award contenders and several all-audience films, horror releases in early January have become a reliable and often successful tradition. Most recently, Universal and Blumhouse’s own M3GAN scored a $30.4 million domestic opening to kickstart 2023.


  • Night Swim hasn’t popped across social media marketing in anywhere near the fashion as did M3GAN one year ago.
  • …The Mean Girls revival film has, however, generated healthy early traction on key social channels such as TikTok and Instagram. Given its own positive early tracking among young women—and its January 12 release date, the weekend after Night Swim‘s debut—the horror film could become less of a priority for the two films’ shared audience depending on buzz and reception over the next four weeks.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023-2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/7/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/15/2023 American Fiction (Limited)           MGM / MRC
12/15/2023 Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 8)           Lotte Entertainment
12/15/2023 Wonka $26,000,000 – $36,000,000 -7%   $142,000,000 – $252,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2023 All of Us Strangers (Limited)           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/22/2023 American Fiction (Expansion)           MGM / MRC
12/22/2023 Anyone But You $1,000,000 – $3,000,000     $2,000,000 – $10,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures
12/22/2023 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $32,000,000 – $42,000,000   $42,000,000- $56,000,000 $105,000,000 – $168,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2023 The Iron Claw $2,000,000 – $5,000,000     $10,000,000 – $26,000,000   A24
12/22/2023 Migration $15,000,000 – $30,000,000 -9% $21,000,000- $42,000,000 $112,000,000- $250,000,000   Universal Pictures / Illumination
12/22/2023 Salaar: Part 1 Ceasefire           Prathyangira Cinemas
12/25/2023 The Boys in the Boat $1,500,000 – $4,000,000     $8,000,000 – $16,000,000   MGM
12/25/2023 The Color Purple $13,000,000 – $20,000,000     $59,000,000 – $110,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
12/25/2023 Ferrari $3,000,000 – $7,000,000     $12,000,000 – $35,000,000   NEON
1/5/2024 Night Swim $17,000,000 – $25,000,000     $38,000,000 – $65,000,000   Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
1/5/2024 The Painter           Republic Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

© 2023 Universal Studios. All Rights Reserved. Photo by Anne Marie Fox/Universal Pictures

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