With Valentine’s Day landing on Wednesday this year, studios are getting a jump on the long weekend that will be bookended by Presidents Day the following Monday. Here’s a look at how expectations for those releases are shaping up so far.
Bob Marley: One Love
Paramount Pictures
February 14, 2024
3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $11M-$16M
Domestic Total Range: $35M-$69M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Biopic Bob Marley: One Love could be an appealing option over the long holiday frame given the hopeful nature of Marley’s music and life-affirming philosophies.
- Madame Web will hope to court comic book fans over the date-friendly Valentine’s debut, with particular interest surrounding co-star Sydney Sweeney’s social media pull in the wake of Anyone But You‘s sleeper success. Reception will need to be strong in the wake of what’s tracking to be a debut closer to the likes of Birds of Prey and Morbius than the fellow Spider-Man spin-off Venom films.
- The Chosen will likely again draw from its core faith-based audience, a crowd that has shown up in very respectable numbers for previous episode debuts in theaters.
Madame Web
Sony / Columbia Pictures
February 14, 2024
3-Day FSS Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$35M
Domestic Total Range: $56M-$101M
WEEKEND CONS:
- Biopics such as One Love can be challenging to sell in today’s marketplace, where similar films have dominated the streaming landscape. Likewise, the target adult audience that’s most familiar with Marley has also proven in this day and age to be more selective with what films bring them out to theaters.
- Similarly, post-pandemic, comic book movies are no longer an automatic hot commodity among general audiences unless there’s a significant hook. Based on a character less familiar outside the core fanbase, Madame Web has work to do with an early marketing campaign that has often become meme-worthy in various online social circles.
- As a tried-and-true brand with non-premiere and non-finale episodes debuting, it’s feasible that even the Chosen franchise’s fans may feel less urgency to see these middle chapters outside their homes.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/18/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/26/2024 | Miller’s Girl | Lionsgate | ||||
| 1/26/2024 | Underdoggs | United Artists | ||||
| 1/26/2024 | The Concierge | Sony / Crunchyroll | ||||
| 1/26/2024 | Housekeeping for Beginners (Limited) | Focus Features | ||||
| 2/1/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 | $7,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $18,000,000 | Fathom Events | ||
| 2/2/2024 | Argylle | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | -7% | $65,000,000 – $95,000,000 | -23% | Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films |
| 2/2/2024 | Scrambled | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $14,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 2/8/2024 | 2 Win | Lionsgate | ||||
| 2/9/2024 | Lisa Frankenstein | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $23,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Focus Features | ||
| 2/9/2024 | The Origin | Bleecker Street | ||||
| 2/9/2024 | Turning Red | Disney / Pixar | ||||
| 2/14/2024 | Bob Marley: One Love | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $69,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 2/14/2024 | Madame Web | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $56,000,000 – $101,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 2/15/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 | $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $16,000,000 | Fathom Events |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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