This week’s tracking report takes a look at the final frame of September, currently set for the release of Universal’s Bros and Paramount’s Smile as the fourth quarter of 2022 will commence.
Meanwhile, updated forecasts for other upcoming titles are in the chart below as usual.
PROS:
- Bros is aiming to stand out among audiences as the first all-LGBTQ+ main cast with a comedy that hopes to break out among a diverse range of demographics. Early social buzz and trailer reception is mostly positive, and the film could prove to be a solid date night choice with potential for staying power if word of mouth delivers. Director Nicholas Stoller (Neighbors, Forgetting Sarah Marshall) also has plenty of successful history with leggy comedies.
- Smile will lean into Halloween season as October begins on its opening weekend, providing the latest psychological horror release. Preliminary metrics are ahead of films such as The Invitation and Barbarian thus far, and the original nature of the film could be a strength given the genre’s nature to see sleeper and breakout box office runs outside of sequels in recent years.
- Don’t Worry Darling is living up to some expected volatility of tracking as the film’s publicity surrounding on-set controversies has impacted social sentiments and chatter in recent weeks. Forecasts are cautiously raised by a slight margin for now with the film’s elevated exposure, though much could still change in the next three weeks before release.
CONS:
- Bros‘ biggest challenge upfront will be in capturing the aforementioned diverse array of moviegoers beyond the LGBTQ+ community. Its nature as a romantic comedy could help in that regard, but as a first-of-its-kind theatrical release — and given the hit-or-miss nature of comedies on the big screen recently — expectations are in flux for now.
- Smile will mark the third horror release in just over one month, and lands two weeks before Halloween Ends. With an R rating, the film will need solid buzz and reception among young adult demographics to meet or exceed current box office trajectories.
- With an estimated 2,200 location count for Barbarian and minimal marketing impact thus far, models are softening somewhat for opening weekend until week-of-release pre-sales tracking sheds more light on potential.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/1/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/9/2022 | Barbarian | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | -12% | $17,000,000 – $32,000,000 | -12% | 20th Century Studios |
| 9/9/2022 | Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva | Disney / Fox Star | ||||
| 9/16/2022 | God’s Country | IFC Films | ||||
| 9/16/2022 | Running the Bases | UP2U Films | ||||
| 9/16/2022 | See How They Run | Searchlight Pictures | ||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Silent Twins | Focus Features | ||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Woman King | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $42,000,000 – $67,000,000 | Sony / TriStar Pictures | ||
| 9/23/2022 | Avatar (2022 Re-Release) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/23/2022 | Don’t Worry Darling | $11,500,000 – $16,500,000 | +4% | $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 | +4% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 9/30/2022 | Bros | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $60,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 9/30/2022 | Smile | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Paramount Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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