Photo courtesy A24; Photo by Dan Smith for Lionsgate

As our look ahead at April’s box office continues, two more films come into view with this week’s report.

Civil War


April 12, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $12M-$18M
Domestic Total Range: $34M-$65M


  • Filmmaker Alex Garland has built a following with genre-bending films such as Ex Machina and Annihilation, as well as “Devs” on Hulu. Combined with an IMAX release and strong cast, his latest could stand out in amid a relatively soft April slate.
  • Likewise, A24’s brand is among the gold standards outside the major studio system, with many fans turning out for the studio’s original projects regardless of writer, director, or cast.


  • Dystopian films can be challenging to sell to mainstream audiences, particularly in the post-pandemic era when escapism has been a dominant theme even among the more successful mid-range box office performers.

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare


April 19, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $6M-$10M
Domestic Total Range: $12M-$34M


  • Guy Ritchie also boasts a core fan following that overlaps nicely with the film’s target audience. An appealing ensemble cast will be beneficial, too.


  • Competition for male audiences will be challenging up against Civil War and the potential holdover strength of Monkey Man and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/14/24)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Distributor
3/22/2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $31,000,000 – $43,000,000 $85,000,000 – $126,000,000 Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024 Luca     Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024 Asphalt City     Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $43,000,000 – $56,000,000 $95,000,000 – $157,000,000 Warner Bros. Pictures
3/29/2024 In the Land of Saints and Sinners     Samuel Goldwyn Films
4/5/2024 The First Omen $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $20,000,000 – $34,400,000 20th Century Studios
4/5/2024 Monkey Man $16,000,000 – $25,000,000 $45,000,000 – $75,000,000 Universal Pictures
4/10/2024 SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE     BTS SUGA
4/12/2024 Civil War $12,000,000 – $18,000,000 $34,000,000 – $65,000,000 A24
4/12/2024 Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead (2024)     Iconic Events Releasing
4/19/2024 The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 $12,000,000 – $34,000,000 Lionsgate

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

Photo courtesy A24; Photo by Dan Smith for Lionsgate