This week’s outlook tackles the final full weekend of February with two major studio releases highlighted in early forecasts.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training
Sony Pictures & Crunchyroll
February 23, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $14M-$23M
Domestic Total Range: $25M-$51M
PROS:
- The Demon Slayer franchise has proven to be a robust specialty player at the domestic box office in recent years as the anime series’ fan base continues to grow internationally.
- Coming out in the middle of a weak winter market, the latest Demon Slayer chapter will be able to screen on IMAX and PLF screens, a boost that could push earnings closer to 2021’s Mugen Train ($21.2 million opening weekend) than to last year’s To the Swordsmith Village ($10.1 million) when it opened against Creed III.
CONS:
- Reporting for Swordsmith Village was notably limited after opening weekend, making long-term projection models more volatile for Hashira Training. The film will also run into more direct competition in its second frame with Dune: Part Two targeting some crossover audience and premium screens on March 1.
Ordinary Angels
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company
February 23, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $9M-$14M
Domestic Total Range: $27M-$46M
PROS:
- Kingdom Story Company has developed a solid track record with appeal to faith-based audiences across films like Jesus Revolution, American Underdog, and I Still Believe. This inspirational drama based on a true story is built for the same audience sector.
- Hilary Swank’s starring role adds potential mainstream appeal, with social media models comparable to Jesus Revolution (co-starring Kelsey Grammer and Kimberly Williams-Paisley) and The Shack (led by Octavia Spencer).
CONS:
- While coexistence is possible, Ordinary Angels opens in between next month’s staggered theatrical openings of The Chosen season four episode launches, creating modest competition for the faith-based audience.
- It remains to be seen how aggressively Lionsgate markets the film, which could determine its ability to reach beyond core demographics.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/25/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 2/1/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 | $7,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $18,000,000 | Fathom Events | |
| 2/2/2024 | Argylle | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $95,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films | |
| 2/2/2024 | Scrambled | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $14,000,000 | Lionsgate | |
| 2/8/2024 | 2 Win | Lionsgate | |||
| 2/9/2024 | Lisa Frankenstein | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $23,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Focus Features | |
| 2/9/2024 | The Origin | Bleecker Street | |||
| 2/9/2024 | Turning Red | Disney / Pixar | |||
| 2/14/2024 | Bob Marley: One Love | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $41,000,000 – $77,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | |
| 2/14/2024 | Madame Web | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $56,000,000 – $101,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |
| 2/15/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 | $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $16,000,000 | Fathom Events | |
| 2/23/2024 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training | $14,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $51,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll | |
| 2/23/2024 | Drive-Away Dolls | Focus Features | |||
| 2/23/2024 | Ordinary Angels | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $27,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
Share this post