This week’s outlook takes a glance at the first true tentpole release of 2024, landing on a weekend much of the industry has had circled on its calendars for quite some time following a lackluster winter.
Dune: Part Two
Warner Bros.
March 1, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $50M-$75M
Domestic Total Range: $125M-$195M
PROS:
- The first Dune installment from Denis Villeneuve was an important player in the early COVID recovery era back in October 2021, earning $41 million on opening weekend despite simultaneous streaming availability for free to HBO Max subscribers, combined with a still-substantial level of health concern among older audiences. Those circumstances arguably held the film back from its full earning potential.
- Pre-sales for this sequel have come on strong in early days, most notably in premium formats such as IMAX, as they pace similarly to the first film’s during initial sales days, putting it well ahead of films like Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, The Flash, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
- Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya’s respective popularity among young millennials and Gen Z has continued to soar since the first film’s release, particularly since the success of Wonka in Chalamet’s case. With another ensemble cast for this sequel, rounded out by the additions of Florence Pugh, Austin Butler, and others, appeal among younger viewers could grow significantly from the first Dune. That film catered mostly to men (62 percent) over the age of 25 (72 percent).
- After a dearth of tentpole releases in recent months, pent-up demand for a film marketed as a big screen event—in tandem with the first film’s own goodwill and critical acclaim—may boost the profile of Part Two this spring, when it will have several weekends relatively free of direct competition.
CONS:
- Despite strong online buzz and critical acclaim, the source material remains a somewhat challenging sell to casual moviegoers, with high-brow science-fiction often resulting in front-loaded sales windows and box office runs.
- With a very high share of pre-sales favoring premium formats, hovering around 85 percent of tickets sold in early tracking windows and sample markets, it remains to be seen how much standard auditorium demand grows over the course of the next month.
- As several aforementioned franchises mentioned above showed at the box office last year, IP catered predominately to adult men has become a volatile sector to project at times as audience bases for modern moviegoing evolve. This will increase the importance of other factors when it comes to enhancing Dune: Part Two‘s appeal among younger audiences and women.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/1/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 2/9/2024 | Lisa Frankenstein | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $18,000,000 – $39,000,000 | Focus Features |
| 2/9/2024 | Out of Darkness | Bleecker Street | ||
| 2/9/2024 | Turning Red | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 2/14/2024 | Bob Marley: One Love | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $47,000,000 – $86,000,000 | Paramount Pictures |
| 2/14/2024 | Madame Web | $20,000,000 – $29,000,000 | $56,000,000 – $95,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 2/15/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $4,500,000 – $11,000,000 | Fathom Events |
| 2/23/2024 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training | $14,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $51,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll |
| 2/23/2024 | Drive-Away Dolls | Focus Features | ||
| 2/23/2024 | Ordinary Angels | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $27,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company |
| 2/23/2024 | Tenet (2024 Re-Issue) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 2/29/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 | Angel Studios | ||
| 3/1/2024 | Dune: Part Two | $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $125,000,000 – $195,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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