This week’s report takes a preliminary look at two releases from major studios slated to open August 11: Gran Turismo and The Last Voyage of the Demeter.
Updated tracking for Barbie can also be found below, as the film continues to shatter expectations with pre-sales pacing higher than for any release since Black Panther: Wakanda Forever last November. Likewise, Oppenheimer is maintaining its relatively robust pace as the two films look to combine for a powerhouse weekend at the box office one week from now.
August 11, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $15M-$20M
Domestic Total Range: $35M-$55M
- The Gran Turismo video game franchise has endured over the last few decades, with its popularity helping to boost awareness and interest for this film adaptation.
- Director Neill Blomkamp has had prior success with late summer releases in the form of District 9 and Elysium.
- The movie’s fact-based approach to story—at its center is Jann Mardenborough, who went from playing the Gran Turismo game to embarking on a successful career as a professional race driver—might help this stand out from past video game adaptations.
- A significant amount of competition for male audiences will be in play late this summer, with Gran Turismo‘s opening weekend going up against the second frames of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench.
- Hollywood’s actors joining writers in their ongoing strike could impact the talent promotion phase of marketing.
The Last Voyage of the Demeter
August 11, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $5M-$10M
Domestic Total Range: $14M-$28M
- Horror has quite often over-delivered at the box office in recent months and years. This summer, however, has been light on horror releases, which could spur interest here if reviews and audience buzz are positive.
- The film has been delayed several times by this point, and early social metrics aren’t encouraging. With abundant competition for male audiences and the aforementioned possibility of the actors’ strike affecting promotion, it’ll be challenging for this to stand out based on current models.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/13/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|7/21/2023||Barbie||$115,000,000 – $155,000,000||+32%||$303,000,000 – $426,000,000||+32%||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|7/21/2023||Oppenheimer||$48,000,000 – $57,000,000||+3%||$164,000,000 – $194,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|7/28/2023||The First Slam Dunk||GKIDS|
|7/28/2023||Haunted Mansion||$22,000,000 – $32,000,000||$73,000,000 – $113,000,000||Walt Disney Pictures|
|7/28/2023||Talk to Me||A24|
|8/2/2023||Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem||$27,000,000 – $36,000,000||$37,000,000 – $49,000,000||$101,000,000 – $145,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|8/4/2023||Meg 2: The Trench||$26,000,000 – $35,000,000||$70,000,000 – $105,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/11/2023||Gran Turismo||$15,000,000 – $20,000,000||$35,000,000 – $55,000,000||Sony Pictures|
|8/11/2023||The Last Voyage of the Demeter||$5,000,000 – $10,000,000||$14,000,000 – $28,000,000||Universal Pictures|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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