This week’s update continues an early look into September’s key theatrical releases with early forecasts for the fourth film in the Expendables franchise.
Expend4bles
Lionsgate
September 22, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $13M-$18M
Domestic Total Range: $31M-$45M
PROS
- The return of Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, and Dolph Lundgren—plus the addition to the franchise of Megan Fox, Tony Ja, and others—could help maintain interest from the core older male audience who drove the prior three films at the box office.
- Competition from action films will be relatively light in late September and throughout October.
CONS:
- This sequel is nine years removed from the third film, which already saw domestic revenues decline 54 percent to $39.3 million from 2012’s second Expendables entry ($85 million).
- Unlike prior installments, this new film doesn’t boast the kind of marquee action star ensemble (Schwarzenegger, Ford, Gibson, Snipes, Banderas, Van Damme, Willis, et al.) that served as the commercial hook across the first three chapters.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/24/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/1/2023 | The Equalizer 3 | $27,000,000 – $34,000,000 | +7% | $69,000,000 – $93,500,000 | +7% | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 9/8/2023 | My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | -15% | $24,000,000 – $43,000,000 | -15% | Focus Features |
| 9/8/2023 | The Nun II | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $97,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 9/15/2023 | A Haunting in Venice | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $57,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/15/2023 | Amerikatsi | Variance Films / Everest Films | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Camp Hideout | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Barbie (IMAX Release) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Dumb Money (Limited Expansion) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Expend4bles | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $31,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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