Long Range Box Office Forecast: Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Father Stu

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. ("Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore"); Sony Pictures ("Father Stu")

This week’s report continues our look ahead to April, easily the most prolific month of 2022 so far in terms of major releases, and the busiest pandemic era calendar since the final three months of last year.

In addition to initial forecasts for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Father Stu, other upcoming releases and their preliminary targets — some recently revised — can be found in the chart below, per usual.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Warner Bros.
April 15, 2022

PROS:

  • The Harry Potter fan base remains a tight-knit force more than twenty years after the first film. They will certainly be the driver of opening weekend attendance, especially young women. Good Friday and Easter weekend should benefit early business to some extent as well.
  • Trailer impact and social sentiment among fans are cautiously positive for this three-quel. The two official trailers have accumulated over 31 million YouTube views over the past few months.
  • Fans are particularly interested to see not just the increased role of Jude Law’s “younger” Dumbledore, but the latest recasting of the series’ primary villain — Grindelwald — with Mads Mikkelsen taking over the role from Johnny Depp, and Colin Farrell before him.
  • With theatrical exclusivity and a premium format footprint that will include IMAX, this third film has the final half of April to make its run before Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness drops in May.

CONS:

  • 2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was the first notable misfire for the Wizarding World franchise. Its $62.2 million domestic opening was down 16 percent from Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($74.4 million), while both reviews (36 percent) and audience reception (54 percent) sank staying power.

    Crimes ultimately finished with just under $160 million in North America, the first film in the Potter and Beasts combined franchise of ten films to fall short of $200 million.
  • Dumbledore opens in the first crowded corridor of the pandemic since the end of last year, so competition will be notable. Family audience turnout is expected to gravitate toward Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (and The Bad Guys, opening April 22), while male audiences will likely be focused on a combination of films around this time.
  • With adult women remaining the primary holdout of the moviegoing audience during the waning pandemic, this sequel will test both their enthusiasm for another Fantastic Beasts movie as well as a return to the theater this spring. Recent backlash from some fans toward public social commentary made by Potter author J.K. Rowling may or may not be a factor for some viewers deciding when or if to see this sequel.
  • With surrounding competition and the aforementioned Doctor Strange sequel around the corner, this chapter is likely to struggle drawing the kind of “event” prowess the franchise was once known for. As such, it’s probably safe to expect another front-loaded run.

Father Stu
Sony Pictures
April 13, 2022

PROS:

  • Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson could be an appealing duo for adult audiences looking for original dramatic content, this one based on a true story and exclusive to theaters upon release.
  • Adult men are the target audience here, a somewhat reliable demo throughout the pandemic, but faith-based moviegoers of all backgrounds could be important and give the film some sleeper potential given the subject matter of the film and its pre-Easter debut.

CONS:

  • This is, again, the type of low-to-mid-tier film that doesn’t need blockbuster numbers to succeed, but it nonetheless represents a test for the kind of content audiences will gravitate toward and prioritize a theatrical viewing for.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/17/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/25/2022 The Lost City $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 +5% $51,000,000 – $84,000,000   4,000 Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor $500,000 – $2,000,000   $1,000,000 – $5,000,000   TBD Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 +11% $95,000,000 – $135,000,000 +11% 4,200 Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance $12,000,000 – $18,000,000   $35,000,000 – $55,000,000     Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide) $3,000,000 – $7,000,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000     A24
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $40,000,000 – $55,000,000   $115,000,000 – $165,000,000     Paramount Pictures
4/13/2022 Father Stu $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 NEW $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 NEW   Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 – $140,000,000 NEW   Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman           Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent           Lionsgate
4/29/2022 Memory           Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher           IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
7/22/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance           Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear           Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.           Focus Features
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees           Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives           MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Shazam! Fury of the Gods           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

News Stories