Long Range Box Office Forecast: Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Father Stu

This week’s report continues our look ahead to April, easily the most prolific month of 2022 so far in terms of major releases, and the busiest pandemic era calendar since the final three months of last year.

In addition to initial forecasts for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Father Stu, other upcoming releases and their preliminary targets — some recently revised — can be found in the chart below, per usual.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Warner Bros.
April 15, 2022

PROS:

• The Harry Potter fan base remains a tight-knit force more than twenty years after the first film. They will certainly be the driver of opening weekend attendance, especially young women. Good Friday and Easter weekend should benefit early business to some extent as well.

• Trailer impact and social sentiment among fans are cautiously positive for this three-quel. The two official trailers have accumulated over 31 million YouTube views over the past few months.

• Fans are particularly interested to see not just the increased role of Jude Law’s “younger” Dumbledore, but the latest recasting of the series’ primary villain — Grindelwald — with Mads Mikkelsen taking over the role from Johnny Depp, and Colin Farrell before him.

• With theatrical exclusivity and a premium format footprint that will include IMAX, this third film has the final half of April to make its run before Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness drops in May.

CONS:

• 2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was the first notable misfire for the Wizarding World franchise. Its $62.2 million domestic opening was down 16 percent from Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($74.4 million), while both reviews (36 percent) and audience reception (54 percent) sank staying power.
  
  Crimes ultimately finished with just under $160 million in North America, the first film in the Potter and Beasts combined franchise of ten films to fall short of $200 million.

• Dumbledore opens in the first crowded corridor of the pandemic since the end of last year, so competition will be notable. Family audience turnout is expected to gravitate toward Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (and The Bad Guys, opening April 22), while male audiences will likely be focused on a combination of films around this time.

• With adult women remaining the primary holdout of the moviegoing audience during the waning pandemic, this sequel will test both their enthusiasm for another Fantastic Beasts movie as well as a return to the theater this spring. Recent backlash from some fans toward public social commentary made by Potter author J.K. Rowling may or may not be a factor for some viewers deciding when or if to see this sequel.

• With surrounding competition and the aforementioned Doctor Strange sequel around the corner, this chapter is likely to struggle drawing the kind of “event” prowess the franchise was once known for. As such, it’s probably safe to expect another front-loaded run.

Father Stu
Sony Pictures
April 13, 2022

PROS:

• Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson could be an appealing duo for adult audiences looking for original dramatic content, this one based on a true story and exclusive to theaters upon release.

• Adult men are the target audience here, a somewhat reliable demo throughout the pandemic, but faith-based moviegoers of all backgrounds could be important and give the film some sleeper potential given the subject matter of the film and its pre-Easter debut.

CONS:

• This is, again, the type of low-to-mid-tier film that doesn’t need blockbuster numbers to succeed, but it nonetheless represents a test for the kind of content audiences will gravitate toward and prioritize a theatrical viewing for.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/17/22)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

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