This week’s update is short and sweet with the four-week outlook extending into what many hope will be another “calm before the storm” scenario as Avatar: The Way of Water will be one week away at this point.
Currently, the only planned wide release of the December 9 frame is Sony’s re-release of Father Stu — titled Father Stu: Reborn — following a $20.9 million domestic run off a $5.4 million bow in the spring of this year. The re-cut, PG-13 version is intended to draw family interest over the holidays after the film proved leggy in its initial R-rated form. Expectations for this re-issue are light, though.
A24 and Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, led by likely Oscar candidate Brendan Fraser, has been garnering plenty of award circuit buzz in recent months, and it was once reported to go nationwide on this same weekend. However, upon confirmation with the studio, it will be opening in platform style only with venues in Los Angeles and New York on December 9.
As alluded to, check back next week when preliminary public forecasts for James Cameron’s Avatar sequel will be published, in addition to potential updates for Thanksgiving week and other upcoming releases.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/11/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 11/18/2022 | The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 | Fathom Events | ||||
| 11/18/2022 | The Menu | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | -23% | $14,000,000 – $30,000,000 | -23% | Universal Pictures |
| 11/23/2022 | Bones and All (Limited on Nov. 18) | United Artists Releasing | ||||
| 11/23/2022 | Devotion | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $17,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans (Wide Expansion) | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 11/23/2022 | Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery | $6,000,000+ | $12,000,000+ | Netflix | ||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $68,000,000 – $103,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures | ||
| 12/2/2022 | Emancipation | Apple Original Films | ||||
| 12/2/2022 | Quintessential Quintuplets Movie | Crunchyroll / Sony | ||||
| 12/2/2022 | Violent Night | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $21,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 12/9/2022 | Empire of Light (Limited) | Searchlight Pictures | ||||
| 12/9/2022 | Father Stu: Reborn | $500,000 – $2,000,000 | $1,000,000 – $5,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 12/9/2022 | The Whale (Platform) | A24 |
Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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