Long Range Box Office Forecast: Father Stu: Reborn and The Whale‘s Platform Debut Will Anchor a Slow Early December Frame

Photo Credits: A24 / Matthew Libatique ("The Whale"); Sony ("Father Stu: Reborn")

This week’s update is short and sweet with the four-week outlook extending into what many hope will be another “calm before the storm” scenario as Avatar: The Way of Water will be one week away at this point.

Currently, the only planned wide release of the December 9 frame is Sony’s re-release of Father Stu — titled Father Stu: Reborn — following a $20.9 million domestic run off a $5.4 million bow in the spring of this year. The re-cut, PG-13 version is intended to draw family interest over the holidays after the film proved leggy in its initial R-rated form. Expectations for this re-issue are light, though.

A24 and Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, led by likely Oscar candidate Brendan Fraser, has been garnering plenty of award circuit buzz in recent months, and it was once reported to go nationwide on this same weekend. However, upon confirmation with the studio, it will be opening in platform style only with venues in Los Angeles and New York on December 9.

As alluded to, check back next week when preliminary public forecasts for James Cameron’s Avatar sequel will be published, in addition to potential updates for Thanksgiving week and other upcoming releases.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/11/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
11/18/2022 The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2         Fathom Events
11/18/2022 The Menu $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $25,000,000 – $50,000,000   Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 -23% $14,000,000 – $30,000,000 -23% Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Bones and All (Limited on Nov. 18)         United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Devotion $5,000,000 – $10,000,000   $17,000,000 – $42,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans (Wide Expansion) $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $35,000,000 – $65,000,000   Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery $6,000,000+   $12,000,000+   Netflix
11/23/2022 Strange World $20,000,000 – $30,000,000   $68,000,000 – $103,000,000   Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Emancipation         Apple Original Films
12/2/2022 Quintessential Quintuplets Movie         Crunchyroll / Sony
12/2/2022 Violent Night $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $21,000,000 – $42,000,000   Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 Empire of Light (Limited)         Searchlight Pictures
12/9/2022 Father Stu: Reborn $500,000 – $2,000,000   $1,000,000 – $5,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures
12/9/2022 The Whale (Platform)         A24

Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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