This week’s report takes an early look at Universal and Blumhouse’s remake of Firestarter, currently slated for a hybrid release on Friday, May 13.
In addition to that and other current forecasts in the chart below, tracking over the past week has improved slightly for Marvel Studios’ highly anticipated Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Sales cycles remain largely incomparable to other pandemic releases due to the film’s near-month-long ticket availability, but social trends continue to impress and — for now — all combined models point to a slightly higher floor than data points previously indicated.
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse
- The original 1984 film is a cult classic which helped propel Drew Barrymore into star status. Fans of that film, Stephen King’s novel (whose own brand has seen a resurgence on the big screen), and Blumhouse could turn out for this reimagining.
- Horror has been one of the more consistent draws during the pandemic recovery era, and this will be the first (technically) of that genre to hit cinemas this summer.
- Zac Efron’s leading presence could further boost appeal to female audiences, typically a driver of many horror pictures.
- Opening one week after the Doctor Strange sequel will severely cut into general audience potential as the Marvel blockbuster-to-be is expected to still be going strong in its second weekend. Additionally, Strange‘s own venture into the horror realm may distract even some horror die-hards from this one.
- Early social reactions to trailers and marketing materials are modest, with current sentiments and modelling below The Invisible Man ahead of its 2020 launch and more comparable to the same year’s Fantasy Island.
- Horror reboots have had a mixed history at the box office, and the availability of this film at home for free to Peacock subscribers on the same day won’t do any favors to theatrical potential, especially if reception proves less than positive.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 4/14/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|4/22/2022||The Bad Guys||$10,000,000 – $15,000,000||$40,000,000 – $60,000,000||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|4/22/2022||The Northman||$5,000,000 – $10,000,000||+15%||$12,000,000 – $25,000,000||+13%||Focus Features|
|4/22/2022||The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent||$6,000,000 – $11,000,000||$12,000,000 – $25,000,000||Lionsgate|
|4/29/2022||Memory||$2,000,000 – $5,000,000||$5,000,000 – $15,000,000||Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films|
|5/6/2022||Around the World in 80 Days||Viva Kids|
|5/6/2022||Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness||$170,000,000 – $205,000,000||+2%||$425,000,000 – $535,000,000||+2%||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|5/13/2022||Firestarter||$8,000,000 – $13,000,000||$18,000,000 – $33,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|5/20/2022||Downton Abbey: A New Era||Focus Features|
|5/27/2022||Bob’s Burgers||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|5/27/2022||Top Gun Maverick||Paramount Pictures|
|6/3/2022||Eiffel||Blue Fox Entertainment|
|6/3/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Jurassic World: Dominion||Universal Pictures|
|6/17/2022||Lightyear||Disney / Pixar|
|6/24/2022||The Black Phone||Universal Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Elvis||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Untitled Blumhouse Project||Universal Pictures|
|7/1/2022||Minions: The Rise of Gru||Universal Pictures|
|7/8/2022||Thor: Love and Thunder||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|7/15/2022||Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris||Focus Features|
|7/15/2022||Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank||Paramount Pictures|
|7/15/2022||Where the Crawdads Sing||Sony / 3000 Pictures|
|7/29/2022||Bullet Train||Sony Pictures|
|7/29/2022||DC League of Super-Pets||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Easter Sunday||Universal Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Secret Headquarters||Paramount Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/12/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|8/12/2022||Man from Toronto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||The Bride||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||Fear||Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)|
|8/26/2022||Samaritan||United Artists Releasing|
|9/2/2022||Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.||Focus Features|
|9/9/2022||Salem’s Lot||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/16/2022||Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.||Lionsgate|
|9/16/2022||The Woman King||Sony / TriStar Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Don’t Worry Darling||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Puss In Boots: The Last Wish||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|9/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 3||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|10/7/2022||Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)||Sony Pictures|
|10/14/2022||Halloween Ends||Universal Pictures|
|10/14/2022||White Bird: A Wonder Story||Lionsgate|
|10/21/2022||The Banshees of Inisherin||Disney / Searchlight Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Black Adam||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Ticket to Paradise||Universal Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Untitled Paramount||Paramount Pictures|
|10/28/2022||The Devil’s Light||Lionsgate|
|11/4/2022||Untitled David O. Russell||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|11/11/2022||Black Panther: Wakanda Forever||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|11/18/2022||Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/18/2022||She Said||Universal Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Thirteen Lives||MGM / United Artists Releasing|
|11/23/2022||The Fabelmans||Universal Pictures|
|11/23/2022||Strange World||Walt Disney Pictures|
|12/2/2022||Violent Night||Universal Pictures|
|12/9/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|12/16/2022||Shazam! Fury of the Gods||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|12/21/2022||Avatar 2||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/21/2022||I Wanna Dance With Somebody||Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures|
|12/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 6||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/25/2022||A Man Called Otto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|12/30/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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