Long Range Box Office Forecast: Firestarter‘s Early Outlook, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Tracking Climbs

Photo Credits: Universal Pictures ("Firestarter")

This week’s report takes an early look at Universal and Blumhouse’s remake of Firestarter, currently slated for a hybrid release on Friday, May 13.

In addition to that and other current forecasts in the chart below, tracking over the past week has improved slightly for Marvel Studios’ highly anticipated Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Sales cycles remain largely incomparable to other pandemic releases due to the film’s near-month-long ticket availability, but social trends continue to impress and — for now — all combined models point to a slightly higher floor than data points previously indicated.

Firestarter
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse

PROS:

  • The original 1984 film is a cult classic which helped propel Drew Barrymore into star status. Fans of that film, Stephen King’s novel (whose own brand has seen a resurgence on the big screen), and Blumhouse could turn out for this reimagining.
  • Horror has been one of the more consistent draws during the pandemic recovery era, and this will be the first (technically) of that genre to hit cinemas this summer.
  • Zac Efron’s leading presence could further boost appeal to female audiences, typically a driver of many horror pictures.

CONS:

  • Opening one week after the Doctor Strange sequel will severely cut into general audience potential as the Marvel blockbuster-to-be is expected to still be going strong in its second weekend. Additionally, Strange‘s own venture into the horror realm may distract even some horror die-hards from this one.
  • Early social reactions to trailers and marketing materials are modest, with current sentiments and modelling below The Invisible Man ahead of its 2020 launch and more comparable to the same year’s Fantasy Island.
  • Horror reboots have had a mixed history at the box office, and the availability of this film at home for free to Peacock subscribers on the same day won’t do any favors to theatrical potential, especially if reception proves less than positive.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 4/14/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 +15% $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 +13% Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $6,000,000 – $11,000,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000   Lionsgate
4/29/2022 Memory $2,000,000 – $5,000,000   $5,000,000 – $15,000,000   Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Around the World in 80 Days         Viva Kids
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $170,000,000 – $205,000,000 +2% $425,000,000 – $535,000,000 +2% Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $18,000,000 – $33,000,000   Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era         Focus Features
5/20/2022 Men         A24
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers         Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick         Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel         Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2         Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher         IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion         Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear         Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone         Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis         Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project         Universal Pictures
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru         Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder         Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest         STXfilms
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/15/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank         Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing         Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope         Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 Bullet Train         Sony Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets         Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance         Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday         Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters         Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3         Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight         Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto         Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast         Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride         Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear         Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan         United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.         Focus Features
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot         Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.         Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant         Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King         Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling         Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish         Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3         Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros         Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)         Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends         Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story         Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam         Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise         Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount         Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light         Lionsgate
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell         Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever         Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile         Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4         Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said         Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives         MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III         MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans         Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World         Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night         Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)          
12/16/2022 Shazam! Fury of the Gods         Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2         Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody         Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario         Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6         Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto         Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)          

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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