This week’s outlook rounds out the October calendar with a preliminary look at what’s driving Halloween weekend’s key release in early forecasts.
Five Nights at Freddy’s
Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
October 27, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $33M-$42M
Domestic Total Range: $60M-$90M
- Since its launch in 2014, the Five Nights at Freddy’s franchise has consistently ranked as a popular horror-thriller video game series across multiple platforms and consoles. With a PG-13 rating, this film adaptation will be accessible to the core young audience that’s driven the longevity and popular meme culture surrounding the game.
- Blumhouse’s central producing role, alongside their long-running and fruitful relationship with Universal, adds to confidence as the market comes off recent horror hits such as Insidious: The Red Door, M3GAN, The Black Phone, and the divisive-but-lucrative recent Halloween trilogy. Early social and trailer trends are notably outpacing the former three films among that list.
- Timed for release on the weekend immediately before Halloween on Monday, spooky season synergy will be at its peak. Furthermore, the target audience will have been drastically underserved throughout most of the early autumn.
- With a young audience driving expectations and word of mouth challenging to predict, front-loading could be a factor watch out for. Whether or not the film boasts staying power in November will come down to reception and its ability to bring in casual horror fans.
- Killers of the Flower Moon and Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour will still be vying for premium screen space, so there is some fluidity in projecting what kind of footprint Freddy‘s can manage to get (and, to that end, what its average ticket price will be). On a related note, pre-sales could be relatively backloaded until closer to release despite the pre-existing fan base.
- With a hybrid release planned by Universal for a day-and-date streaming release (ala Halloween Kills and Halloween Ends), forecasts are volatile at this time.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/29/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|10/6/2023||Dicks: The Musical (Limited)||A24|
|10/6/2023||The Exorcist: Believer||$21,000,000 – $31,000,000||$48,000,000 – $79,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|10/6/2023||Cat Person||Rialto Pictures|
|10/6/2023||Untitled Focus Features Film||Focus Features|
|10/13/2023||Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour||$105,000,000 – $155,000,000||TBD||AMC Theatres / Variance Films|
|10/20/2023||Killers of the Flower Moon||$27,000,000 – $36,000,000||$90,000,000 – $134,000,000||Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios|
|10/20/2023||Soul Mates||Faith Media Distribution|
|10/27/2023||After Death||Angel Studios|
|10/27/2023||Five Nights at Freddy’s||$33,000,000 – $42,000,000||$60,000,000 – $90,000,000||Universal Pictures / Blumhouse|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.