This week’s report closes out our early look at March and the end of 2024’s first quarter with the addition of another franchise crossover sequel.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Warner Bros.
March 29, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $41M-$50M
Domestic Total Range: $91M-$140M
PROS:
- The reunion of two monster-verse icons should attract genre fans as well as some casual moviegoers seeking a bona fide big screen action film. The return of director Adam Wingard, who helmed 2021’s Godzilla vs. Kong, should also be a perk for die-hard fans.
- Godzilla vs. Kong was a respectable success that played a role in helping to turn the tide of early pandemic recovery for domestic movie theaters as they reopened across different markets. The film earned $48.5 million domestically in its first five days despite a simultaneous streaming release on what was then known as HBO Max.
- Opening on Good Friday, an Easter weekend bow should prove beneficial here, with many audiences out of school and work to begin the holiday frame. PLF play will be notable based on early tracking metrics, and April’s relatively light slate could aid staying power if word of mouth is healthy.
CONS:
- While its mid-pandemic release window arguably led to Godzilla vs. Kong leaving some money on the table, it also benefited from healthy reviews (76 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and audience scores (91 percent) to stand alongside the first-of-its-kind pairing of the two iconic monsters in a modern Hollywood-produced film. It remains to be seen if the novelty of the previous film will be as strong outside the monster-verse fan base this time around. The franchise, dating back to 2014’s Godzilla ($200.7 million domestic), has a box office trendline of diminishing returns. After 2017’s Kong: Skull Island posted $168 million, 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters, earned $110.5 million (half of its predecessor’s run) prior to the pandemic-impacted run of Godzilla vs. Kong ($100.9 million).
- Opening one week after Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, and with the potential for Dune: Part Two to have positive (though late-stage) staying power in its fifth weekend, competition for New Empire‘s core male audience will be more robust than the barren market which Godzilla vs. Kong entered three years ago.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/29/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 3/8/2024 | Accidental Texan | Roadside Attractions | ||
| 3/8/2024 | Cabrini | Angel Studios | ||
| 3/8/2024 | Imaginary | $8,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $47,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| 3/8/2024 | Kung Fu Panda 4 | $30,000,000 – $39,000,000 | $103,000,000 – $142,000,000 | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation |
| 3/15/2024 | Arthur The King | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $33,000,000 – $64,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| 3/15/2024 | Love Lies Bleeding (Wide Expansion) | A24 | ||
| 3/22/2024 | One Life | Bleecker Street | ||
| 3/22/2024 | The American Society of Magical Negroes | Focus Features | ||
| 3/22/2024 | Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire | $35,000,000 – $49,000,000 | $96,000,000 – $144,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 3/22/2024 | Luca | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 3/29/2024 | Asphalt City | Vertical & Roadside Attractions | ||
| 3/29/2024 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | $41,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $91,000,000 – $140,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/29/2024 | In the Land of Saints and Sinners | Samuel Goldwyn Films |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
Share this post