The long range outlook for January continues with a brief look ahead to the post-Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend corridor.
I.S.S.
Bleecker Street
January 19, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $2M-$7M
Domestic Total Range: $5M-$22M
WEEKEND PROS:
- I.S.S. could attract sci-fi and thriller genre fans with minimal competition in late January and a trailer whose social media sentiment has been respectable in recent weeks.
- Holdovers will be the name of the game coming off MLK weekend, with Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, and The Book of Clarence hoping to extend staying power after their debuts.
WEEKEND CONS:
- Coming from a distributor with limited market reach in the past couple of years creates some cautious expectations for I.S.S.
- The absence of other major releases at this time will likely mean a fairly slow weekend coming off the MLK holiday and with American football playoffs likely to dominate cultural attention on Sunday.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023-2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(All Forecasts Current as of 12/14/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 12/25/2023 | The Boys in the Boat | $1,500,000 – $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $16,000,000 | MGM |
| 12/25/2023 | The Color Purple | $16,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 12/25/2023 | Ferrari | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | NEON |
| 1/5/2024 | Night Swim | $17,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $38,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse |
| 1/5/2024 | The Painter | Republic Pictures | ||
| 1/12/2024 | The Beekeeper | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $41,000,000 | MGM |
| 1/12/2024 | The Book of Clarence | $7,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Sony Pictures |
| 1/12/2024 | Mean Girls | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $105,000,000 | Paramount Pictures |
| 1/12/2024 | Soul | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 1/19/2024 | I.S.S. | $2,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $22,000,000 | Bleecker Street |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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