March’s box office rebound continues with two counter-programming releases slated for the weekend of March 8.
Imaginary
Lionsgate
March 8, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $15M-$20M
Domestic Total Range: $37M-$63M
PROS:
- Blumhouse has a strong reputation for delivering original, high-concept hits out of the horror genre, notably driving films like M3GAN and The Black Phone to strong openings and subsequent box office runs.
- As the first horror release of spring, and given its PG-13 rating, Imaginary could see a strong showing from younger genre fans. Early trailer view footprints are respectable across social channels.
CONS:
- Social media sentiment isn’t on the level of M3GAN at this stage, though that’s a tall ask given the latter’s profound viral nature thanks to the title character’s dance sequence becoming meme-worthy months ahead of release.
- While Blumhouse hits more often than they miss, Night Swim was a recent example of a genre film that didn’t catch fire among the studio’s usually faithful audience. It also remains to be seen how aggressively Lionsgate markets Imaginary relative to Universal and Sony, who have handled most of the horror producer’s recent films.
Kung Fu Panda 4
Universal
March 8, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $30M-$39M
Domestic Total Range: $103M-$142M
PROS:
- The Kung Fu Panda franchise has proven successful over the last sixteen years, driving $524 million in domestic box office across three films and spawning various television series and specials.
- The return of Jack Black in one of his most iconic roles should be appealing to parents and older fans, especially given the dearth of kid-driven big screen content in between Panda 4‘s release and December’s Migration. This sequel will also go relatively unchallenged until late May’s The Garfield Movie.
CONS:
- Animated brands aren’t immune to diminished returns and can often drop more sharply from predecessor earnings than live-action franchises. Panda‘s exposure via the aforementioned television series could play into this trend, as the series is not as relevant or eventized among today’s kids as it was more than a decade ago.
- Though leaning more toward an older audience, competition from the family-friendly Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire could have a minor impact on Panda‘s chase weekends.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/8/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 2/14/2024 | Bob Marley: One Love | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $55,000,000 – $90,300,000 | Paramount Pictures |
| 2/14/2024 | Madame Web | $15,000,000 – $24,000,000 | $42,000,000 – $78,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 2/15/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $6,000,000 – $13,500,000 | Fathom Events |
| 2/23/2024 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training | $9,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $16,000,000 – $40,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Crunchyroll |
| 2/23/2024 | Drive-Away Dolls | Focus Features | ||
| 2/23/2024 | Ordinary Angels | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $24,000,000 – $43,000,000 | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company |
| 2/23/2024 | Tenet (2024 Re-Issue) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 2/29/2024 | The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $6,000,000 – $13,500,000 | Angel Studios |
| 3/1/2024 | Dune: Part Two | $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $138,000,000 – $195,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/8/2024 | Accidental Texan | Roadside Attractions | ||
| 3/8/2024 | Cabrini | Angel Studios | ||
| 3/8/2024 | Imaginary | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $63,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| 3/8/2024 | Kung Fu Panda 4 | $30,000,000 – $39,000,000 | $103,000,000 – $142,000,000 | Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
Share this post