Long Range Box Office Forecast: Memory and Updates on Key April Releases

Update: The forecast for Everything Everywhere All at Once below has been corrected to reflect the updated location estimate for its wide expansion on April 8.

April 1 Report: This week’s update is on the shorter side as the long range report takes a look at the release of Memory on the final weekend of April, traditionally also known as the calm before the storm of summer movie season.

After two consecutive years without that early May blockbuster, though, the pandemic recovery era is in full force as a relatively normal summer movie calendar is set to begin in giant fashion with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness on May 6.

Before we get there, however, the business of April must play out. Below are this week’s key analysis points and updated forecast ranges.

PROS:

• Briarcliff Entertainment and Open Road Films have a long history with Liam Neeson-led thrillers, so there should be an element of consistency for tracking Memory ahead of its debut. The pic, co-starring Guy Pearce and Monica Bellucci while directed by Martin Campbell (Casino Royale), is being offered up as a male-driven counter-programmer after a fairly busy April slate before the Marvel mammoth arrives.

• Early reviews for Ambulance are registering fairly positive, so despite a minor decrease in its forecast this week, we’re expecting slightly longer legs to balance out surrounding market impact.

• Everything Everywhere All at Once scored a stellar platform debut last weekend that has increased expectations for another significant A24 hit when it goes nationwide. Its one-night IMAX play on March 30 drove reportedly healthy sales, and pre-release social trends are now matching those of some of the studio’s biggest past hits.

• Robert Eggers’ The Northman is now included in forecast ranges below, though trajectories remain fluid given its minimal marketing until recent days.

CONS:

• Memory, as alluded to, has the unfortunate fate of opening on what is classically a slow weekend at the box office. Following multiple high-profile titles from late March into mid-April, and with Marvel Studios’ eagerly awaited Doctor Strange sequel lurking in the shadows, Memory is likely to draw only the most loyal of Neeson fans as preliminary metrics compare slightly ahead of Blacklight.

• Although an original film whose marketing won’t fully kick in until Easter week, Father Stu looks to be in increasing need of a faith-based audience to help it stand out among the somewhat crowded mid-April slate.

• Forecasts remain in flux for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore as pre-sales have just begun and early screening reactions hit online fan circles.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/31/22)