Long Range Box Office Forecast: Memory and Updates on Key April Releases

Photo Credits: Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films ("Memory")

Update: The forecast for Everything Everywhere All at Once below has been corrected to reflect the updated location estimate for its wide expansion on April 8.

April 1 Report: This week’s update is on the shorter side as the long range report takes a look at the release of Memory on the final weekend of April, traditionally also known as the calm before the storm of summer movie season.

After two consecutive years without that early May blockbuster, though, the pandemic recovery era is in full force as a relatively normal summer movie calendar is set to begin in giant fashion with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness on May 6.

Before we get there, however, the business of April must play out. Below are this week’s key analysis points and updated forecast ranges.

PROS:

  • Briarcliff Entertainment and Open Road Films have a long history with Liam Neeson-led thrillers, so there should be an element of consistency for tracking Memory ahead of its debut. The pic, co-starring Guy Pearce and Monica Bellucci while directed by Martin Campbell (Casino Royale), is being offered up as a male-driven counter-programmer after a fairly busy April slate before the Marvel mammoth arrives.
  • Early reviews for Ambulance are registering fairly positive, so despite a minor decrease in its forecast this week, we’re expecting slightly longer legs to balance out surrounding market impact.
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once scored a stellar platform debut last weekend that has increased expectations for another significant A24 hit when it goes nationwide. Its one-night IMAX play on March 30 drove reportedly healthy sales, and pre-release social trends are now matching those of some of the studio’s biggest past hits.
  • Robert Eggers’ The Northman is now included in forecast ranges below, though trajectories remain fluid given its minimal marketing until recent days.

CONS:

  • Memory, as alluded to, has the unfortunate fate of opening on what is classically a slow weekend at the box office. Following multiple high-profile titles from late March into mid-April, and with Marvel Studios’ eagerly awaited Doctor Strange sequel lurking in the shadows, Memory is likely to draw only the most loyal of Neeson fans as preliminary metrics compare slightly ahead of Blacklight.
  • Although an original film whose marketing won’t fully kick in until Easter week, Father Stu looks to be in increasing need of a faith-based audience to help it stand out among the somewhat crowded mid-April slate.
  • Forecasts remain in flux for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore as pre-sales have just begun and early screening reactions hit online fan circles.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/31/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/8/2022 Ambulance $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 -9% $35,000,000 – $55,000,000   3,400 Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide) $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $12,000,000 – $26,000,000   1,200 A24
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $45,000,000 – $60,000,000   $125,000,000 – $170,000,000   4,100 Paramount Pictures
4/13/2022 Father Stu $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 -14% $15,000,000 – $30,000,000 -18%   Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore $45,000,000 – $55,000,000 -9% $100,000,000 – $130,000,000 -9%   Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $40,000,000 – $60,000,000     Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 NEW $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 NEW   Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $16,000,000 – $36,000,000     Lionsgate
4/29/2022 Memory $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 NEW $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 NEW   Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Around the World in 80 Days         100 Viva Kids
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
5/20/2022 Men           A24
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher           IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance           Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear           Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.           Focus Features
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives           MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Shazam! Fury of the Gods           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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