Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE

Photo courtesy Paramount Pictures and Skydance

This week’s report takes an early look at possible box office trajectories for the seventh installment of the Mission: Impossible film franchise, alongside tracking updates for other upcoming releases.

Updates for No Hard Feelings; Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny; and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, plus other forecast updates, are in the table below.


Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Paramount Pictures

July 11, 2023 (WIDE)

3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $65M-$80M

Domestic Total Range: $250M-$320M

PROS:

  • Selling points for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One include not only the critical and commercial success of its 2018 predecessor, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, but the enormous goodwill earned by star Tom Cruise from last year’s Top Gun: Maverick. These two factors combine for a potentially significant wave of momentum heading into Dead Reckoning Part One‘s release, as audiences look forward to Cruise’s continuation of the long-running action franchise and its marquee real-life stunts.
  • Dead Reckoning‘s first day of pre-sales in sampled North American markets registered 8 percent above those of John Wick: Chapter 4 and just 15 percent behind Fast X. With the Mission: Impossible franchise typically being less frontloaded than the Fast and Furious films—and with the fact that several other high-profile films are competing for pre-sales dollars—that’s a very encouraging early sign.
  • Premium formats should be a strong component of the Mission: Impossible franchise’s box office once again. This is particularly true of Imax, which featured a special making-of sequence for Dead Reckoning running in front of Maverick as an early marketing piece last year.
  • Mission: Impossible films have historically played longer than moreyouth-driven franchises, positioning this sequel to enjoy a leggy run through the back half of summer.
  • Social media sentiment has been consistently enthusiastic with the release of each trailer and featurette. Christopher McQuarrie, director of this entry and the previous two, has played a significant role in helping drum up buzz by posting various behind-the-scenes tidbits and announcements over the past few years.
  • Dead Reckoning‘s recent push up from a Friday to Wednesday release, with various preview dates also in play, helps give the film some extra time in theaters—and on premium screens—before Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer opens the following week.

CONS:

  • With Oppenheimer slated to release nine days after Dead Reckoning, commanding most of the Imax and premium footprint for several weeks, crossover competition for both premium screens and the adult male audience will be notable. Fallout drew a 55 percent male and 59 percent age 35-plus opening weekend demographic share in 2018, while Nolan’s Dunkirk pulled a 60 percent male lead with 76 percent over the age of 25.
  • On a similar note, if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny—out less than two weeks before Dead Reckoning‘s Wednesday opening—were to draw healthy word of mouth, its chase weeks at the box office could be a strong player for some of Dead Reckoning‘s target audience.
  • With the move to a Wednesday release, plus several instances of early access shows and previews, forecast models will be more volatile than when the film was slated for a traditional Friday opening.
  • As the first of what’s presumed to be the two-part finale of Cruise’s tenure with the franchise, it remains to be seen if word of mouth will be as strong as has it been for the last few entries. A cliffhanger ending, if that comes to pass, for a 163-minute movie could be a blow to the series’ typical crowd-pleasing nature, depending on the tone of the film’s denouement.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/16/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
6/23/2023 Asteroid City (Expansion)         Focus Features
6/23/2023 No Hard Feelings $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 -13% $32,500,000 – $52,000,000 -13% Sony Pictures
6/23/2023 Past Lives (Wide Expansion)         A24
6/30/2023 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $68,000,000 – $102,000,000   $211,000,000 – $325,000,000   Disney / Lucasfilm
6/30/2023 Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 -12% $38,000,000 – $66,000,000 -12% Universal / DreamWorks Animation
7/7/2023 Insidious: The Red Door $25,000,000 – $33,000,000   $56,000,000 – $76,000,000   Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023 Joy Ride $12,000,000 – $17,000,000   $40,000,000 – $64,000,000   Lionsgate
7/12/2023 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One $65,000,000 – $80,000,000   $250,000,000 – $320,000,000   Paramount Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.

Photo courtesy Paramount Pictures and Skydance
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