This week’s report continues to glance forward at the autumn box office window with early projections for two releases slated for the post-Labor Day frame.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Focus Features
September 8, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $8M-$13M
Domestic Total Range: $24M-$43M
PROS:
- My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will court fans of the original films, primarily adult women, as a counter-programmer to other films in the market. The prior installment was a notable mid-range box office contributor back in 2016, drawing $59.7 million domestically and $92.1 million worldwide.
- Favored to win the weekend, The Nun 2 will aim to continue capturing the success and popularity of Warner Bros.’ Conjuring franchise. The first Nun still owns the fourth highest September opening in history, pulling $53.8 million in 2018. Early tracking and trailer metrics are encouraging as the horror genre continues to index well with a variety of audiences.
The Nun 2
Warner Bros. Pictures
September 8, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $30M-$45M
Domestic Total Range: $70M-$97M
CONS:
- Greek Wedding‘s target audience has been among the more challenging demographics to bring back to movie theaters in recent years. The prior sequel posted significantly lower returns than the 2002 sleeper blockbuster ($241.4 million domestic and $374.9 million global). With a projected audience breakdown of 75 percent women and at least 60 percent over the age of 40, early metric models are most comparable to recent films like Downton Abbey: A New Era and 80 for Brady.
- Some regression is likewise expected for The Nun 2. The first film was severely frontloaded, earning a 2.18 multiple off its strong debut to finish with $117.5 million. Given the proliferation of the broader Conjuring franchise with three more chapters released since then, it’s safe to expect that not all of the first Nun‘s audience will return for this sequel.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/10/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 8/18/2023 | Back on the Strip | Luminosity Entertainment | |||||
| 8/18/2023 | Blue Beetle | $20,000,000 – $27,000,000 | +50% | $45,000,000 – $87,000,000 | +50% | Warner Bros. Pictures | |
| 8/18/2023 | The Hill | Briarcliff Entertainment | |||||
| 8/18/2023 | Strays | $14,000,000 – $21,000,000 | -29% | $35,500,000 – $59,600,000 | -29% | Universal Pictures | |
| 8/25/2023 | Golda | Fathom Events | |||||
| 8/25/2023 | Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends) | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $61,000,000 | Sony Pictures | |||
| 8/25/2023 | The Hill | Briarcliff Entertainment | |||||
| 8/25/2023 | Retribution | Roadside Attractions | |||||
| 9/1/2023 | The Equalizer 3 | $25,000,000 – $32,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $88,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 9/8/2023 | My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $24,000,000 – $43,000,000 | Focus Features | |||
| 9/8/2023 | The Nun 2 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $97,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.
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