Long Range Box Office Forecast: MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3 and THE NUN 2

This week’s report continues to glance forward at the autumn box office window with early projections for two releases slated for the post-Labor Day frame.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Focus Features

September 8, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $8M-$13M

Domestic Total Range: $24M-$43M


  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will court fans of the original films, primarily adult women, as a counter-programmer to other films in the market. The prior installment was a notable mid-range box office contributor back in 2016, drawing $59.7 million domestically and $92.1 million worldwide.
  • Favored to win the weekend, The Nun 2 will aim to continue capturing the success and popularity of Warner Bros.’ Conjuring franchise. The first Nun still owns the fourth highest September opening in history, pulling $53.8 million in 2018. Early tracking and trailer metrics are encouraging as the horror genre continues to index well with a variety of audiences.

The Nun 2

Warner Bros. Pictures

September 8, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $30M-$45M

Domestic Total Range: $70M-$97M


  • Greek Wedding‘s target audience has been among the more challenging demographics to bring back to movie theaters in recent years. The prior sequel posted significantly lower returns than the 2002 sleeper blockbuster ($241.4 million domestic and $374.9 million global). With a projected audience breakdown of 75 percent women and at least 60 percent over the age of 40, early metric models are most comparable to recent films like Downton Abbey: A New Era and 80 for Brady.
  • Some regression is likewise expected for The Nun 2. The first film was severely frontloaded, earning a 2.18 multiple off its strong debut to finish with $117.5 million. Given the proliferation of the broader Conjuring franchise with three more chapters released since then, it’s safe to expect that not all of the first Nun‘s audience will return for this sequel.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/10/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
8/18/2023 Back on the Strip           Luminosity Entertainment
8/18/2023 Blue Beetle $20,000,000 – $27,000,000 +50%   $45,000,000 – $87,000,000 +50% Warner Bros. Pictures
8/18/2023 The Hill           Briarcliff Entertainment
8/18/2023 Strays $14,000,000 – $21,000,000 -29%   $35,500,000 – $59,600,000 -29% Universal Pictures
8/25/2023 Golda           Fathom Events
8/25/2023 Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends) $17,000,000 – $22,000,000     $40,000,000 – $61,000,000   Sony Pictures
8/25/2023 The Hill           Briarcliff Entertainment
8/25/2023 Retribution           Roadside Attractions
9/1/2023 The Equalizer 3 $25,000,000 – $32,000,000     $65,000,000 – $88,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures
9/8/2023 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $8,000,000 – $13,000,000     $24,000,000 – $43,000,000   Focus Features
9/8/2023 The Nun 2 $30,000,000 – $45,000,000     $70,000,000 – $97,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.

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