With the summer movie season currently in full swing, this week’s update brings us through to August with the releases of Meg 2: The Trench and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.
In addition, this week’s long range forecast offers a significant update on Warner Bros.’ Barbie, listed in the table below. Pre-sales for the highly anticipated adaptation continue to impress, leading The Little Mermaid by a significant margin and comparing favorably to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 at the same point prior to release. Barbie’s head-to-head box office opening with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer continues to drive intense social media engagement for both films.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Paramount Pictures
August 2, 2023 (WIDE)
3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $27M-$36M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $37M-$49M
Domestic Total Range: $101M-$145M
PROS:
- The Turtles brand has been successfully reinvented and reintroduced to modern youngsters a few times since its inception in the 1980s, most recently with the 2014 and 2016 live action box office hits. Nostalgia is also a factor here, as older fans are a key driver of interest in this new entry.
- Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, with their production studio Point Grey Pictures, have a solid track record of box office success in recent years, with Good Boys, Sausage Party, and other films. The expectation here is that the creative team will execute a blend of modern and classic sensibilities with an eye towards ensuring the franchise’s endurance.
- The absence of any other late summer animated options—or, for that matter, films catering to young males—puts this film in a strong position during the dog days of the season before school starts again. The use of an edgier animation style that embraces 2D and 3D to produce a comic book aesthetic, comparable to Sony’s Spider-Verse films, could further help Mutant Mayhem stand out with fans and young audiences.
CONS:
- As seen with last summer’s DC League of Super-Pets, not all animated wide releases based on IP succeed at the box office. Turtles will need to stand out beyond its fan base and generate positive word of mouth to live up to its potential, especially in the wake of several aging franchises underperforming so far this summer.
- Premium screen space could still be hard to come by, with other summer releases—like Oppenheimer and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning—hoping to regain some of those auditoriums in their chase weeks.
- If Disney’s Haunted Mansion breaks out, Turtles could have more competition than it hoped for.
Meg 2: The Trench
Warner Bros. Pictures
August 4, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $26M-$35M
Domestic Total Range: $70M-$105M
PROS:
- The first Meg was a sleeper box office hit, opening to $45.4 million and legging out to $145.5 million domestically five summers ago.
- The return of Jason Statham should assure the return of both his own fans and those who enjoyed the original.
- Meg 2, like its predecessor, is well-positioned in the final weeks of summer movie season. An expected premium screen presence should also give it a boost.
CONS:
- Competition could be notable this time around with the aforementioned appeal of Turtles to male audiences of varying ages, plus the potential staying power of other July releases. Titles such as Gran Turismo, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Blue Beetle, and Strays will aim to get some of Meg 2‘s male moviegoers throughout August.
- Historically, and particularly in recent memory, action sequels such as Meg 2 have not always lived up to their predecessors’ box office performances.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/6/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 7/12/2023 | Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | $65,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $90,000,000 – $110,000,000 | $250,000,000 – $301,000,000 | -6% | Paramount Pictures | |
| 7/14/2023 | PSYCHO-PASS: Providence (Limited) | Sony / Crunchyroll | |||||
| 7/14/2023 | Theater Camp (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 7/21/2023 | Barbie | $85,000,000 – $115,000,000 | +54% | $215,000,000 – $319,000,000 | +54% | Warner Bros. Pictures | |
| 7/21/2023 | Oppenheimer | $45,000,000 – $57,000,000 | $154,000,000 – $194,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 7/28/2023 | The First Slam Dunk | GKIDS | |||||
| 7/28/2023 | Haunted Mansion | $22,000,000 – $32,000,000 | $73,000,000 – $113,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures | |||
| 7/28/2023 | Talk to Me | A24 | |||||
| 8/2/2023 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | $27,000,000 – $36,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $49,000,000 | $101,000,000 – $145,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 8/4/2023 | Meg 2: The Trench | $26,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $105,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.
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