Long Range Box Office Forecast: NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM and MEG 2 Early Prospects; BARBIE Tracking Soars

Images courtesy Paramount; Warner Bros.

With the summer movie season currently in full swing, this week’s update brings us through to August with the releases of Meg 2: The Trench and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.

In addition, this week’s long range forecast offers a significant update on Warner Bros.’ Barbie, listed in the table below. Pre-sales for the highly anticipated adaptation continue to impress, leading The Little Mermaid by a significant margin and comparing favorably to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 at the same point prior to release. Barbie’s head-to-head box office opening with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer continues to drive intense social media engagement for both films.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Paramount Pictures

August 2, 2023 (WIDE)

3-Day Opening Weekend Range: $27M-$36M
5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $37M-$49M

Domestic Total Range: $101M-$145M


  • The Turtles brand has been successfully reinvented and reintroduced to modern youngsters a few times since its inception in the 1980s, most recently with the 2014 and 2016 live action box office hits. Nostalgia is also a factor here, as older fans are a key driver of interest in this new entry.
  • Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, with their production studio Point Grey Pictures, have a solid track record of box office success in recent years, with Good Boys, Sausage Party, and other films. The expectation here is that the creative team will execute a blend of modern and classic sensibilities with an eye towards ensuring the franchise’s endurance.
  • The absence of any other late summer animated options—or, for that matter, films catering to young males—puts this film in a strong position during the dog days of the season before school starts again. The use of an edgier animation style that embraces 2D and 3D to produce a comic book aesthetic, comparable to Sony’s Spider-Verse films, could further help Mutant Mayhem stand out with fans and young audiences.


  • As seen with last summer’s DC League of Super-Pets, not all animated wide releases based on IP succeed at the box office. Turtles will need to stand out beyond its fan base and generate positive word of mouth to live up to its potential, especially in the wake of several aging franchises underperforming so far this summer.
  • Premium screen space could still be hard to come by, with other summer releases—like Oppenheimer and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning—hoping to regain some of those auditoriums in their chase weeks.
  • If Disney’s Haunted Mansion breaks out, Turtles could have more competition than it hoped for.

Meg 2: The Trench

Warner Bros. Pictures

August 4, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $26M-$35M

Domestic Total Range: $70M-$105M


  • The first Meg was a sleeper box office hit, opening to $45.4 million and legging out to $145.5 million domestically five summers ago.
  • The return of Jason Statham should assure the return of both his own fans and those who enjoyed the original.
  • Meg 2, like its predecessor, is well-positioned in the final weeks of summer movie season. An expected premium screen presence should also give it a boost.


  • Competition could be notable this time around with the aforementioned appeal of Turtles to male audiences of varying ages, plus the potential staying power of other July releases. Titles such as Gran Turismo, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Blue Beetle, and Strays will aim to get some of Meg 2‘s male moviegoers throughout August.
  • Historically, and particularly in recent memory, action sequels such as Meg 2 have not always lived up to their predecessors’ box office performances.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/6/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
7/12/2023 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One $65,000,000 – $75,000,000   $90,000,000 – $110,000,000 $250,000,000 – $301,000,000 -6% Paramount Pictures
7/14/2023 PSYCHO-PASS: Providence (Limited)           Sony / Crunchyroll
7/14/2023 Theater Camp (Limited)           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/21/2023 Barbie $85,000,000 – $115,000,000 +54%   $215,000,000 – $319,000,000 +54% Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023 Oppenheimer $45,000,000 – $57,000,000     $154,000,000 – $194,000,000   Universal Pictures
7/28/2023 The First Slam Dunk           GKIDS
7/28/2023 Haunted Mansion $22,000,000 – $32,000,000     $73,000,000 – $113,000,000   Walt Disney Pictures
7/28/2023 Talk to Me           A24
8/2/2023 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $27,000,000 – $36,000,000   $37,000,000 – $49,000,000 $101,000,000 – $145,000,000   Paramount Pictures
8/4/2023 Meg 2: The Trench $26,000,000 – $35,000,000     $70,000,000 – $105,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.

Images courtesy Paramount; Warner Bros.

News Stories