Long Range Box Office Forecast: NO HARD FEELINGS, Plus SPIDER-VERSE, TRANSFORMERS, and THE FLASH Updates

Photo Credits: Sony / Eigil Bryld ("No Hard Feelings")

This week’s report welcomes the addition of just one new release, though a crowded June slate ahead means forecasts are evolving for a handful of releases.

PROS and CONS:

  • No Hard Feelings is hoping to re-capture the star power of Jennifer Lawrence, who returns to a leading role in a theatrical release for the first time since taking a break from acting after her rapid ascent to popularity in the 2010s.

    Appeal to adult women is strongest at the moment, and the comedy could be a sleeper candidate against the other male-driven tentpoles of the month. With that in mind, though, early social footprints and trailer traction are modest. Word of mouth will be crucial if the film is to exceed current projections.
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse continues to generate strong advance sales in line with the upper bound of earlier forecasts, resulting in higher expectations across the board for next week’s debut. Cautiously, though, it’s worth noting that some frontloading is apparent in current post-Thursday trends as behavior seems to be mimicking a typical Marvel film more than a traditional animated release without a dedicated fan base.
  • On a smaller scale, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts has shown somewhat encouraging signals as Paramount ramps up marketing, though front-loading is still expected for now as a potential breakout by Spider-Verse would surely have an impact on this similarly young male-targeted sequel.
  • Initial presales for The Flash fell somewhat short of expectations baked into prior forecasts, though it’s still very early days. Worth noting is that the film is certainly not yet on the radar of casual audiences, so presales may not accurately reflect eventual results with competition for crossover demographics via Spider-Man and Transformers preceding its debut.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/26/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
6/2/2023 The Boogeyman $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 -22% $56,000,000 – $102,000,000 -11% Disney / 20th Century Studios
6/2/2023 Past Lives (Platform)         A24
6/2/2023 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $95,000,000 – $130,000,000 +11% $253,000,000 – $359,000,000 +11% Sony / Columbia Pictures
6/9/2023 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $37,000,000 – $46,000,000 +9% $75,300,000 – $103,500,000 +4% Paramount Pictures
6/16/2023 Asteroid City (Limited)         Focus Features
6/16/2023 The Blackening $13,000,000 – $18,000,000   $32,500,000 – $58,800,000   Lionsgate
6/16/2023 Elemental $31,000,000 – $41,000,000   $98,000,000 – $167,000,000   Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023 The Flash $85,000,000 – $135,000,000 -4% $208,000,000 – $362,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
6/23/2023 Asteroid City (Expansion)         Focus Features
6/23/2023 No Hard Feelings $13,000,000 – $22,000,000   $46,000,000 – $76,000,000   Sony Pictures
6/23/2023 Past Lives (Wide Expansion)         A24

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: Sony / Eigil Bryld ("No Hard Feelings")
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